Distribution visualized:
The process by which Wall Street dumps worthless stock onto Etrader bagholders...
NYSE distribution (up volume / total volume) 30 week moving average
Another Hindenburg Omen today
H.O. Count: 5
Friday, June 26, 2015
Ponzi World: An Orderly Self-Obliteration. For Now.
Bernie Madoff would be proud of how all this is ending
Distribution visualized:
The process by which Wall Street dumps worthless stock onto Etrader bagholders...
NYSE distribution (up volume / total volume) 30 week moving average
Another Hindenburg Omen today
H.O. Count: 5
Distribution visualized:
The process by which Wall Street dumps worthless stock onto Etrader bagholders...
NYSE distribution (up volume / total volume) 30 week moving average
Another Hindenburg Omen today
H.O. Count: 5
Denialism is the Root Cause of Collapse
It's hard to solve problems in a society devoted to pretending they don't exist. The biggest problem we have today is that "we" pretend that there are no problems.
Denialism can't be 'fixed'. It fixes itself.
Getting past denialism, here is a concise list of root causes of collapse, as brief as possible, and borrowing heavily from Paul Kennedy's:
"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers"
In other words, these are all of the MASSIVE issues that are being denied right now...
Hubris: 'exceptionalism', denial, laziness, complacency
Moral decay: greed, materialism, gluttony, nihilism, hedonism, cynicism, narcissism
Lack of competitiveness: Recurring trade deficits, outsourcing, industrial arbitrage
Rent-seeking: excessive speculation, excessive laws, lawyers, regulations, lobbying
Complexity/sclerosis/stagnation: intractable bureaucracy, incompetence
Depletion of the treasury: borrowing for consumption versus investment
Currency debasement: Monetizing debt, printing money
Financial engineering: Derivatives and Ponzi Finance as substitute for real economy
Strategic overreach: Troops in 145 countries, war mongering, serial blunders
Resource/energy depletion: Buying oil from terror sponsors, fracking, environmental degradation
Consumption over investment: Consuming the future via stock buybacks and special dividends
Propaganda/spectacle: Faux News, reality TV
For those who still believe in Macroeconomic policy here is how today's asinine policies deviate from the prescribed implementations.
This shows the magnitude of incompetence inherent to today's thought dealers:
We need not expect "responsible" application of policy, because the concept of responsibility no longer exists.
Only collapse and reset can break rampant denialism.
Denialism can't be 'fixed'. It fixes itself.
Getting past denialism, here is a concise list of root causes of collapse, as brief as possible, and borrowing heavily from Paul Kennedy's:
"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers"
In other words, these are all of the MASSIVE issues that are being denied right now...
Hubris: 'exceptionalism', denial, laziness, complacency
Moral decay: greed, materialism, gluttony, nihilism, hedonism, cynicism, narcissism
Lack of competitiveness: Recurring trade deficits, outsourcing, industrial arbitrage
Rent-seeking: excessive speculation, excessive laws, lawyers, regulations, lobbying
Complexity/sclerosis/stagnation: intractable bureaucracy, incompetence
Depletion of the treasury: borrowing for consumption versus investment
Currency debasement: Monetizing debt, printing money
Financial engineering: Derivatives and Ponzi Finance as substitute for real economy
Strategic overreach: Troops in 145 countries, war mongering, serial blunders
Resource/energy depletion: Buying oil from terror sponsors, fracking, environmental degradation
Consumption over investment: Consuming the future via stock buybacks and special dividends
Propaganda/spectacle: Faux News, reality TV
For those who still believe in Macroeconomic policy here is how today's asinine policies deviate from the prescribed implementations.
This shows the magnitude of incompetence inherent to today's thought dealers:
We need not expect "responsible" application of policy, because the concept of responsibility no longer exists.
Only collapse and reset can break rampant denialism.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Third World Aspirations "Revealed"
The economy was sold for stock buybacks and special dividends, while Etraders swapped worthless pieces of paper back and forth. Given enough time, history's most morally void generation of mindless corporate zombies, laid themselves off, pending Ponzi revelation.
Got Walmart? The elevator ride to reality is waiting...
Long-term Treasury bond yields aka. forward deflation expectations
Got profits?
Corporate profits baselined to GDP
Got eConomy?
U.S. Stocks by sector
Got Risk?
Russell / Dow Ratio: Binary repricing of risk visualized
As it was right up until Lehman, Etraders were leaning ALL IN Risk ON...
Jim Jones is pleased to announce the new "Imagined Realities Fund", and the Madoff Special Monkey Fund, guaranteed to outperform the PhD competition...
The One Party System: By And For Billunaires
Everyone gets a vote, it just doesn't mean anything... Who is more more cynical - those who still believe in a system where nothing ever changes. Or those who realize it's a useless charade?
"At the end, the stoned corporate Idiocracy munched placidly as their economy was dismantled in broad daylight..."
Fast Track has been fast tracked, by the one party system:
The Republican Manchurian Candidate Foodstamp-dispenser-in-chief, has now fulfilled Bush's fourth term, and can now retire to the lecture circuit for $200k per speech, on his way to amassing a Clinton-like fortune of $55 million. All while extolling let-them-eat-cake limousine liberal bullshit lapped up by Bill Maher & Company. After the carnage of 2008, The Koch Brothers realized that only a Democrat could get away with finishing the job aka. the "left wing of the Republican Party" - so they substituted their closing pitcher.
"And the Fauxtards were shocked and outraged that their 'Commie' President monetized them in broad fucking daylight while they were busy watching Nascar..."
Obamanomics: Foodstamps for jobs
"Look away, look away, look away Dixieland"
Corporate profits baselined to GDP
"Something that doesn't know what's in its own self-interest, has the shelf-life of a rotten banana"
- Charles Darwin
The Disposable Idiocracy is End of Life
"At the end, the stoned corporate Idiocracy munched placidly as their economy was dismantled in broad daylight..."
Fast Track has been fast tracked, by the one party system:
The Republican Manchurian Candidate Foodstamp-dispenser-in-chief, has now fulfilled Bush's fourth term, and can now retire to the lecture circuit for $200k per speech, on his way to amassing a Clinton-like fortune of $55 million. All while extolling let-them-eat-cake limousine liberal bullshit lapped up by Bill Maher & Company. After the carnage of 2008, The Koch Brothers realized that only a Democrat could get away with finishing the job aka. the "left wing of the Republican Party" - so they substituted their closing pitcher.
"And the Fauxtards were shocked and outraged that their 'Commie' President monetized them in broad fucking daylight while they were busy watching Nascar..."
Obamanomics: Foodstamps for jobs
"Look away, look away, look away Dixieland"
Corporate profits baselined to GDP
"Something that doesn't know what's in its own self-interest, has the shelf-life of a rotten banana"
- Charles Darwin
The Disposable Idiocracy is End of Life
The Hunger Games Economy
How to plan history's largest 'surprise' riot...
"...Then the stunned middle class was efficiently monetized by the exact same psychopaths they had just bailed out, while they were still in the fetal position post-Lehman. It was 9-11 Shock Doctrine, on steroids. Meanwhile, those highly fortunate wealthy gamblers who remained intact post-bailout were so grateful, that they turned around and threw it all down the exact same shit hole as last time. The same psychopath casino that robbed them twice previously. But only because their Jim Jones financial advisors told them to do so...Nevertheless, in the end, the bailout would be for absolutely nothing, other than to bury everyone. Including the multinational corporations which, having no else to monetize, monetized themselves, using stock buybacks and *special* dividends at 0%. So it all worked out in the end. After the riots subsided."
Walmart versus Netflix (new all time high):
As long as no one needs another bail-out, this will all turn out fine.
There is no one left to warn them, so the wealthy are oblivious to risk. 2008 will be repeated sans bailout and sans economy. Bailing out greedy fucks, just so that they can continue on their sordid ways, can never end well. One of many Third Grade concepts that the Idiocracy can't understand - up there with printing money to artificially inflate stocks, borrowing your way out of debt, shipping the economy to China and wondering why there are no jobs, etc. etc...
Fortunately, nature has checks and balances on unbridled stupidity - In Ponzi World, those who sell others, eventually get sold.
And then the game of charades ends. Abruptly.
#Karma
"...Then the stunned middle class was efficiently monetized by the exact same psychopaths they had just bailed out, while they were still in the fetal position post-Lehman. It was 9-11 Shock Doctrine, on steroids. Meanwhile, those highly fortunate wealthy gamblers who remained intact post-bailout were so grateful, that they turned around and threw it all down the exact same shit hole as last time. The same psychopath casino that robbed them twice previously. But only because their Jim Jones financial advisors told them to do so...Nevertheless, in the end, the bailout would be for absolutely nothing, other than to bury everyone. Including the multinational corporations which, having no else to monetize, monetized themselves, using stock buybacks and *special* dividends at 0%. So it all worked out in the end. After the riots subsided."
Walmart versus Netflix (new all time high):
As long as no one needs another bail-out, this will all turn out fine.
There is no one left to warn them, so the wealthy are oblivious to risk. 2008 will be repeated sans bailout and sans economy. Bailing out greedy fucks, just so that they can continue on their sordid ways, can never end well. One of many Third Grade concepts that the Idiocracy can't understand - up there with printing money to artificially inflate stocks, borrowing your way out of debt, shipping the economy to China and wondering why there are no jobs, etc. etc...
Fortunately, nature has checks and balances on unbridled stupidity - In Ponzi World, those who sell others, eventually get sold.
And then the game of charades ends. Abruptly.
#Karma
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
The Canaries Are All Dead
MW June 23, 2015
Here's One Bear Market Sign You've Never Seen Before
"The degree to which stocks move together in unison is a function of the market cycle. In bear markets the vast majority of stocks do so, whereas in bull markets stocks tend to march to the beat of their own drummer. It’s at market tops, therefore, when stocks’ moves in step with the overall market tend to be at the lowest point. Such as it is now. Last week, even as the broad market averages rose to within shouting distance of their all-time highs and some secondary averages actually did so, just 7.2% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit new 52-week highs. A slightly greater percentage of stocks — 7.3% — hit new 52-week lows."
Goldman Skynet has created divergences in this cycle that only a Russian PhD in math could conjure up. Because we know that infinite market manipulation just comes down to the right equation. As we see further below, it always comes together in the end...
New 52 week highs NYSE:
Coming together in the end, visualized...
"In bear markets stocks and sectors move as one"
The Lehman singularity circa October 2008:
"Don't believe your advisor when they tell you this is a 'stock picker's' market"
You mean the same gambling advisor from 2008?
Here's One Bear Market Sign You've Never Seen Before
"The degree to which stocks move together in unison is a function of the market cycle. In bear markets the vast majority of stocks do so, whereas in bull markets stocks tend to march to the beat of their own drummer. It’s at market tops, therefore, when stocks’ moves in step with the overall market tend to be at the lowest point. Such as it is now. Last week, even as the broad market averages rose to within shouting distance of their all-time highs and some secondary averages actually did so, just 7.2% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit new 52-week highs. A slightly greater percentage of stocks — 7.3% — hit new 52-week lows."
Goldman Skynet has created divergences in this cycle that only a Russian PhD in math could conjure up. Because we know that infinite market manipulation just comes down to the right equation. As we see further below, it always comes together in the end...
New 52 week highs NYSE:
Coming together in the end, visualized...
"In bear markets stocks and sectors move as one"
The Lehman singularity circa October 2008:
"Don't believe your advisor when they tell you this is a 'stock picker's' market"
You mean the same gambling advisor from 2008?
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: War, Pestilence, Famine, Denialism
The Sixth Mass Extinction is underway, with extinction occurring at 100x the natural rate. Unfortunately it includes humans, and is caused by humans. So, as expected, there is mass denial about mass extinction.
Denialism: is a weakness of the mind, rendering the sufferer incapable of facing the truth; it usually afflicts old people, but can afflict young people, due to consumption addiction which weakens the brain. It's contagious and fatal. The only known cure is Zen to strengthen the mind, which unfortunately is a totally foreign concept to dopamine-addicted zombies.
Denialism is nature's way of putting people out of their own misery while solving the problem at the same time. It's Euthanasia for the mentally infirm - merciful and brutally efficient. Today, denialism is epidemic, it's the zombie virus. Like Ebola, it has to burn itself out by killing the host, so it can't propagate.
From an evolutionary standpoint, denialists serve an extremely important purpose: they blind the herd to risk. Making thinning (strengthening) possible. If the herd saw it coming, it wouldn't work. There has been no thinning for far too long, which has allowed the dumbest fucking people and their ideas, to flourish. Things can only improve when the denialists and their ditto heads are gone. Denialism has put this species at extreme risk, so it needs to be allowed to "run its natural course"...
Post-2008 Denialism stampede visualized:
"This way to hope and change"
The natural zombie herding process increases the average IQ and frees up resources, making sustainable change possible:
The stampede is already in full motion, so it's important not to inadvertently volunteer for early "retirement" in a FEMA camp, by believing all of the bullshit.
Most in the developed world will be self-obliterated by their own Denialism. Denialists are the first to go, which is merciful because they have no will or ability to live in a real world anyway. Life without shopping sprees is unthinkable. The corporate disposable batteries have served their purpose and are tagged for disposal.
Having consumed their own future, the Idiocracy's only recourse is an invented reality. The status quo is a dead-end. They have very limited time, and are desperate to refute any shred of reality that could impair shopping sprees today. It's a garbage society ready to be flushed down the toilet of history, by their own hand.
Therefore, we live in the Age of Denialism overrun with professional liars spinning lies for an old age home painted into a corner. This is an infantile society wholly void of any sense of responsibility, preoccupied with monetizing its own children and grandchildren by any means possible, now featuring ponzi-debts and negative interest rates. A comfort-seeking Idiocracy incapable of facing reality in any direction - economy, environment, resources and especially the all-important Walmart-oriented lifestyle. Stoned zombies having consumed their own future, and in doing so unwittingly self-selected themselves for extinction.
Fortunately, nothing bulk thins the herd as efficiently as denialism. And it's the fairest form of obliteration. Self-nominated extinction. Darwin has a special solution for members of a species that can't face risk of any kind.
A global warming denialist circa 2015, extolling the benefits of drinking fracking waste water, due to drought:
The Sixth Mass Extinction Visualized:
We can't reach the quota without the denialists. Fortunately, they are the first to go, and they wouldn't have it any other way. The real world is no place for self-absorbed zombies lacking any survival imperative.
But don't take my word for it. A hard rain is a-gonna fall. And the more "volunteers" up front, the better.
#Desecration #Tribulation
The Wall Street Bail-out: History's Largest Self-Burial
"...and just six years after bailing out Wall Street, everyone was bankrupt..."
Obamanomics:
Foodstamps versus employment:
Got economy? Or just dead canaries in a coal mine...
MAXIMUM PAIN
The Scylla and Charybdis of slowing growth and rising interest rates
Ponzi schemes require relentless growth and liquidity, both of which are now reversing. Central planning for billunaires is ending. Badly.
Global growth is at a decade low 2.8% (ex. 2009) and global short-term interest rates are at a 500 year low. So the accelerator is on the floor, but the car is stalling.
Meanwhile, globally, long-term borrowing costs are rising across the board - U.S., Europe, China, Japan, Emerging Markets.
Meaning that liquidity is now tightening into a slowing economy...
Global Dow with global growth (red):
De Facto tightening
U.S. Treasury 30 year Bond (prices) with Real Estate (REITS):
Reducing liquidity into a weakening economy. End of Ponzi.
The risk isn't that "something" breaks, the risk is that all things break, at the same time.
Ponzi schemes require relentless growth and liquidity, both of which are now reversing. Central planning for billunaires is ending. Badly.
Global growth is at a decade low 2.8% (ex. 2009) and global short-term interest rates are at a 500 year low. So the accelerator is on the floor, but the car is stalling.
Meanwhile, globally, long-term borrowing costs are rising across the board - U.S., Europe, China, Japan, Emerging Markets.
Meaning that liquidity is now tightening into a slowing economy...
Global Dow with global growth (red):
De Facto tightening
U.S. Treasury 30 year Bond (prices) with Real Estate (REITS):
Reducing liquidity into a weakening economy. End of Ponzi.
The risk isn't that "something" breaks, the risk is that all things break, at the same time.
The Madoff Report
Watching Globalization Melt-down in broad daylight, while stoned zombies trade Netflix
In summary:
-The world's second largest economy (China) is falling apart in real time amid Municipal borrowing at ~12x last year's rate
-The unwinding EM carry trade is the largest in two centuries on a relative basis
-The Japanese Yen is the last leg of the stool poised to go RISK OFF
Overnight, the Shanghai Composite fell another 5%, and then rallied back for a 2% gain.
HARD LANDING IN PROGRESS:
Meanwhile, also in China, "explosive" Municipal bond issuance last month alone equaled the same amount for ALL of 2014 i.e. 600 billion Yuan:
"Driving the huge new issuance of municipal bonds is an estimated 22.6 trillion yuan of high interest local government debt, which provinces are struggling to refinance more cheaply."
"...local government spending collapsed in the second quarter to just 1.2 percent growth from a year earlier and investment growth is at a 10-year low"
Chinese stocks with Chinese GDP (red)
(U.S. close yesterday):
EM Carry trade is just the largest in two centuries:
Real risks of course are centered in the totally ignored Emerging Markets which don't have the ability to monetize their debts. Combined EM dollar debt is 20x Greece...
UK Telegraph, December 2014:
EM dollar debt tripled in a decade to $6 trillion:
"It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries."
EM debt (local currency terms) and EM Currencies w/U.S. stocks (Small caps):
As long as the Japanese Yen doesn't go RISK OFF, like the dollar already has...
Yen (black) with European stocks (red): I knew I'd seen that chart before...
In summary:
-The world's second largest economy (China) is falling apart in real time amid Municipal borrowing at ~12x last year's rate
-The unwinding EM carry trade is the largest in two centuries on a relative basis
-The Japanese Yen is the last leg of the stool poised to go RISK OFF
Overnight, the Shanghai Composite fell another 5%, and then rallied back for a 2% gain.
HARD LANDING IN PROGRESS:
Meanwhile, also in China, "explosive" Municipal bond issuance last month alone equaled the same amount for ALL of 2014 i.e. 600 billion Yuan:
"Driving the huge new issuance of municipal bonds is an estimated 22.6 trillion yuan of high interest local government debt, which provinces are struggling to refinance more cheaply."
"...local government spending collapsed in the second quarter to just 1.2 percent growth from a year earlier and investment growth is at a 10-year low"
Chinese stocks with Chinese GDP (red)
(U.S. close yesterday):
EM Carry trade is just the largest in two centuries:
Real risks of course are centered in the totally ignored Emerging Markets which don't have the ability to monetize their debts. Combined EM dollar debt is 20x Greece...
UK Telegraph, December 2014:
EM dollar debt tripled in a decade to $6 trillion:
"It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries."
EM debt (local currency terms) and EM Currencies w/U.S. stocks (Small caps):
As long as the Japanese Yen doesn't go RISK OFF, like the dollar already has...
Yen (black) with European stocks (red): I knew I'd seen that chart before...
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