Friday, December 15, 2017

Financial Deathstar RISK

As long as 15x leveraged BitCasino doesn't crash, this will all be fine...

Melt-up to Meltdown:
"Professional investors have provided much of the enthusiasm for the market. The Investors Intelligence survey, which gauges sentiment from investing newsletter authors, has found bulls outnumbering bears at around the same level as just before Black Monday in October 1987, when the Dow lost 22 percent in a single day."

The crash ratio hit a new extreme today:

And as we see, deja vu of the Senate vote two weeks ago, the Nasdaq 100 had some intra-day indigestion ahead of next week's final vote. 

Smart money, dumb money, really what's the difference?

'Tis The Season To Take From The Poor And Give To The Rich

Making dumb money was never so easy...

Trump and the Fed have collaborated to combine record stock prices with decade high probability of recession...

But who will be right - the bond market or every dumbfuck you ever met?

 And for the record, I'm not saying that Trump is the AntiChrist, I'm just saying that everything he does is Anti-Christian...

As the tax bill heads for final passage next week, the casino is pumping and dumping with each headline. The net effect of the House/Senate "reconciliation" process this week was to lower the top tax rate paid by the wealthiest Americans. That was their net accomplishment. One asks how fucked up is "democracy" when RepubliCons are willing to risk political suicide for yet another tax cut?

How this happens is a result of multinational corporations hijacking the U.S. political system. Wherein companies are allowed to put their factories in one country, their untaxed profits in another country, and their political contributions in the country running human history's largest trade deficit. All under the dumbfuck assumption that "deficits don't matter". In the event, democracy gets destroyed. Meanwhile, the role of the Military Industrial Complex is to circle the globe playing super cop for multinationals. Ensuring that all of the vassal states remain in line. Better yet, is when they don't stay in line, then they can be intimidated, isolated, sanctioned, and marginalized until they lash out at the empire. Thus unleashing Keynesian bombing of foreigners. The last best way to reflate the carved out U.S. economy. A patented formula.  

Nation building, by Lockheed Martin

Nevertheless, if anyone wanted to design a more spectacular outcome to this pathetic saga, they would be out of luck finding one. Raising interest rates in anticipation of "fiscal stimulus" which impacts .01% of the population, is the dumbest idea yet widely bought with both hands. 

It has assured the simultaneous outcome of record stock prices and the highest probability of recession.

Meaning that riot risk is extreme, while bailout probability is the limit approaching zero. 

"fears of a curve inversion, or when long-dated yields are lower than short-term yields, is what has drawn eyeballs of late, as the phenomenon is seen as an eerily accurate predictor of a future recession. That’s because the curve tends to invert in response to a combination of slowing growth expectations (hitting the long end) and tighter monetary policy (hitting the short end), both factors capable of derailing an economy at the tail end of its expansion"

Gamble accordingly

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Bernie Who?

My how things change. In this week in 2008 Bernie Madoff went to jail for running a Ponzi scheme that was a fraction of the size of BitCasino. In the eight years since that time, pot was "medicinalized" to wean addicts off of the mega tons of heroin sold by big pharma. And since Social Security was no longer solvent, they decided to legalize Ponzi schemes as well. Last count, 1,357. Not including Dow Casino...

If, as Zerohedge asserts, male Japanese gamblers "control" BitCasino, then it only makes sense to quote Bitcoin in Japanese Yen.

And if 40% of global Bitcoin trading is denominated in Yen, what happens to the Yen carry trade if Bitcoin goes RISK OFF?

I think we all see where I'm going with this...

In other words, the only reason why Bitcoin is near its all time high against the dollar, is because the dollar is losing value, deja vu of 2011 versus gold:

This is the whole Fed rolloff, debt ceiling, government shutdown scenario all over again:

Here is where it gets interesting:

"One huge Tokyo-based BTC exchange is letting people borrow up to 15 times their cash balances to purchase the crypto-currency"

The exchange in question is called bitFlyer: "His Tokyo-based exchange has an 80% share of BTC trading in Japan and 20% to 30% of the global market

It's not just in Tokyo that people are borrowing to buy BTC

"We've seen mortgages being taken out to buy bitcoin. … People do credit cards, equity lines."

"I wonder whether anyone can now map out how much money has been lent to people who are trading BTC around the world and -- were BTC's price to collapse -- how much capital would be wiped out."

I'm going to go with half a trillion, not including margin calls and domino asset sales in speculative condos, stocks, and any other form of collateral...

Naughty Or Nice?

I think we all see where I'm going with this...

The S&P just hit the third multiple of 666 since 2009. Which was impeccably timed by the AntiChrist-in-chief:


Despite the nomenclature, shorting volatility is of course an inherently long RISK position. It's an overwhelming endorsement in the continuation of Ponzi status quo. A bet on the never-ending greater fool to follow. Bernie Madoff believed the exact same thing when he was arrested during this same week in 2008. Just like today's gamblers, Madoff's investors never once questioned how returns could be so high and volatility could be so low.

Speaking of the Big Long, record high risk exposure by active managers, this week:

Caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of dumb and dumber:

Casino crash risk is also reaching an extreme this week:

Momentum is getting pole axed again:

China Tech is primed for overnight implosion:

The Military Industrial Complex is disappointed that WWIII hasn't broken out yet...

Financials have lost their bid since the Fed meeting yesterday:


Mind the gaps:

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

The Scylla And Charybdis of Dumb And Dumber

The tax cut and the rate hike are both now "priced in" to the casino. Meanwhile, currency and bond markets are a tad skeptical about raising rates on the middle class while lowering taxes for the ultra-wealthy. But unfortunately, the ill-fated Idiocracy is trapped between the Scylla and Charybdis of dumb and dumber. And they don't trust anyone who can be trusted...

Because we all know how bullish Fed rate hikes are:

Overnight Risk Deja Vu:

Burning Out On The Rat Race To Nowhere

Cheerleaders for Globalization are all proven failures, but they need to find that out the hard way. The human attrition rate under Globalization exceeds the attrition rate of a normal human life. For a variety of reasons: job insecurity income insecurity, retirement insecurity, and a lack of social safety net. The end result being that people are burning out much faster than they used to...

Aging societies get dumber by the minute - The scope of fantasy necessarily expands as the endgame approaches. Now apparently it takes a Nobel Prize winner to figure out that the status quo is "not working". The problem isn't that American capitalism doesn't work for ALL Americans it's that it only works for .01% of Americans. Of course, they could have just asked anyone who voted for Bernie Sanders...

Surge in ‘deaths of despair’ among whites suggests the loss of ‘a way of life’

For mortality rates to rise instead of fall is extremely rare. It typically takes a war or epidemic for death rates to jump.

Deaton and Case found that these deaths are tied to “deaths of despair” from alcohol, suicide and opioids.

"Mortality rates were rising for working-age white Americans since 1999."

A society that exists solely to increase corporate profit, will find its life force soon depleted: