Wednesday, March 29, 2017

South Park Savoir Faire

I believe in God, but I don't believe in anything else. I especially don't trust the hairless monkey. Somehow they know everything while knowing nothing at the exact same time. Incredible. 



Bank stock risk exposure topped, dropped and now hit a new weekly high...


Doesn't seem like a great idea:


Due to bank over-exposure, the Dow went from multi-decade overbought to now down 9 days in the past ten...


In other words, this will be the fastest and hardest drop. 

EVER.




Waiting For The Mega Crash

When all of the liars learn the hard way that exploitation is not a "business"...

Just waiting for the last three Nasdaq Mega Caps to rollover:

The QQQ / Dow crash barometer



Nasdaq 100 with % of Nasdaq above 50 dma (dashed black line):



Short-covering




Mega cap tech new highs today:

Apple



Facebook



Amazon



Nasdaq Composite with VIX




Money (Out) Flow




Breadth




U.S. Oil ETF
Speculators are abandoning oil. Maybe they don't want OPEC to extend the glut-enhancing agreement another six months...



New record high in inventories this week...
"At 534.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the upper limit of the average range for this time of year"

Well, as long as no one is lying, this will all be fine...




The Lie Of The Hurricane

EconoDunces have a stellar unbroken streak of never seeing the end of the cycle ahead of time. Why start now?

Risk markets took their first leg down at disparate intervals. Now they are sinkronizing to fall as all one market...



Today's Ponzi-based Free Trade alchemy which I call Hegemonics, is human history's largest estate sale. After 2008, the only way the consumption oriented lifestyle could be "saved" was by leveraging it 10x. As of right now EconoDunces are mistaking gamblers throwing their money away at the casino for a "recovery". They are weighing "soft" sentiment data over hard data. In other words, there's so much horse shit in here, there has to be a pony somewhere...



“Confidence is good"

“Despite the strong gain in confidence among small businesses there has been a slowing in loans over the past several months. The story of post-election small business optimism leading to greater investment is not (yet) playing out in the data.”




Hard Data:

Slowdown in GDP
Widening of the budget deficit 
Renewed collapse in Oil, Gasoline, Commodities, Precious Metals
Curve flattening
Collapse in retail stocks
Collapse in Transport stocks
Declining loan growth

Soft Data:

Stock prices, Consumer sentiment

The bond market isn't buying it:
Here we see that despite three rate hikes in the past 14 months, long-term rates are where they were over a year ago...

30 year yield (black). One year yield (red):







Amazon new all time high today



Now that Sears is officially "a going concern", here is Amazon with Walmart






Tuesday, March 28, 2017

"Looking Good, Billy Ray"

Contrary to popular belief, B.S. is not a Black Swan event...





The cascading waterfall of non-stop bullshit:

My time flies when they're blowing smoke up your ass non-stop...




"Paging Harry Houdini"




The two largest sectors of the market, Financials and Tech aka. locus of Mega Crash:




Large cap Tech with banks



One more leg down and no one will be laughing at bullshit anymore...






The Big Short 2.0: Betting Against Trump

Circus Clownius' latest Imperial Decree offers the last chance to get out of the Trump Trade before it collapses on top of everyone who believes in him:



After Friday's debacle, the blood is in the water. It's clear from today's short-covering rally that this era's late cycle Big Short is to bet against all things Trump...




Fresh off his shellacking last week at the hands of his own party, Trump is at it again today, this time at EPA headquarters rolling back Obama's Climate Change policies.

Trump signed the order in a ceremony at the headquarters of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). He was flanked by coal miners — whom EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt joked “might never have been to the EPA before” — as well as cabinet officials and Vice President Mike Pence, who celebrated the executive order as a repudiation of the Obama administration's climate agenda.

"I cannot tell you how many jobs the executive order is going to create but I can tell you that it provides confidence in this administration’s commitment to the coal industry," Kentucky Coal Association president Tyler White told Reuters.

I'll go with not too many, for everything, Alex...

Westmoreland coal
Today's gain: .75%



Frackers up ~2% on the latest Imperial Announcement from Circus Clownius...




Natural Gas, ready for another leg down...




"And all that he touched turned to a pile of shit"

e.g. Financials:


Dollar short-covering...

Kiss goodbye:





Construction/Infra stocks:




USDJPY
Today's rally visible by microscope...




U.S. Oil ETF





Yesterday I said that gamblers were hiding in the Nasdaq. Well, as long as Apple doesn't roll over, this will all be fine...



The next leg down for banks will be painful. We know that much...



The Fed Is Boxed In By Bullshit

The Fed can continue their current course of raising interest rates imploding the economy and forcing the slow motion unwind of the reflation trade OR they can ratchet back tightening expectations which will bring about the instantaneous implosion of the reflation trade.

They are now boxed in by their own lies and b.s along with unprecedented amounts of capital... 





Stocks to bond rotation is well underway, so any attempt by the Fed to take their foot off the peddle will cause this to accelerate, as bonds sense lower interest rates:


They've done their best to implode Commodities, Oil, and Junk bonds:




Slow motion Financials implosion well underway:
Rydex banking stock allocation:




Skynet is now hiding in the world's largest stock by market cap:



What could go wrong?





Cascading Waterfall Of Non-Stop Bullshit...

Idiocratic bias has been confirmed:
ZH: Consumption Confidence Highest Since DotCom Bubble

"We are not anchored in reality, we are floating in a sea of confirmation bias"

A slight change to the count:
I call this the cascading waterfall collapse, of non-stop bullshit...




In other words:
"I want my tax cut! Paid for with inter-generational plundering"




Exactly one working day after their Obamacare rollback imploded:


"Taxpayers with roughly average incomes could expect a tax cut of around $1,100 a year under Trump’s plan, compared to just $60 under Ryan’s plan once the proposals were fully implemented."

Notice that the Koch Brothers who actually control the U.S. government were not even mentioned...

"$60! Let's go shopping. Online. That way we can successfully bypass the entire U.S. economy..."