Wednesday, September 28, 2016

OPEC Reaches Deal To Raise Output aka. Last Chance To Sell

OPEC will first raise production, in order to limit production in November...

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday Iran, Nigeria and Libya would be allowed to produce "at maximum levels that make sense" as part of any output limits 

Iranian output has stagnated at 3.6 million bpd.

"The best that can be...hoped for at this afternoon's meeting is the laying of foundations for a deal when the cartel next meet in November by which time Iranian oil output may well have reached the all-important 4 million barrels-per-day mark,"

Zero Hedge

Central Banks and algos aka. Skynet have made hedging "impossible"...

"Virtually every "name brand" hedge fund is facing redemptions to the tune of billions of dollars. The retirements of industry legends as well as the wind-down of once invincible firms make the news on a regular basis."

Carl Icahn's hedge fund:

Bill Ackman's fund which went public last year...

"Leaving aside the fact that the performance simply isn't there, investors are not immune to the shift in society at large toward data-driven decision making. Smart beta strategies and even some liquid alts have taken the "alpha" that was once handcrafted, trade by trade, and have distilled it into a "structured alpha" pursuit using factors, formulas and algorithms to do what was once the province of the emperors"

"Smart Beta" - Minimum Volatility

Maximum Flash Crash

Risk Impairity

Low Volatility. High Implosion Fund

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

WTO: 'Dramatic Slowing' In Global Ponzi Scheme

"...the World Trade Organization dramatically slashed its forecast for trade growth this year by about a third to its lowest rate since 2009"

"The Geneva-based WTO, perhaps best known for dealing with trade disputes, predicted that global trade will rise only 1.7 percent this year, way down from its April prediction for 2.8 percent."

"If the WTO's forecast comes true, it will be the first time in 15 years that global trade grows more slowly than the world economy, which it expects to expand by 2.2 percent."

"As well as reducing its 2016 forecast, the WTO cut its project for next year to between 1.8 percent and 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent."

Global Merchandise Exports ($billions) with Global Dow
Data through 2015: from WTO Statistics Database

At The Precipice of Imploding Bullshit

"So we’re now on the precipice of having a potentially much better economy"

"Oil prices could quickly dive to $40 or lower if OPEC members leave Algeria without any promise of a deal."

“State aid won’t happen”

Deutsche Lehman

Got volume?

Investors considering the Bank of Japan’s latest policy maneuvers, unveiled last week, can be forgiven for shrugging their shoulders and reverting to what they know: If you’re worried or confused, buy the yen.

USDJPY is sitting right at 100. For three months...


Risk Parity

BBG: Sept. 15, 2016
Forced Selling From Risk Parity Funds Risks Bond Implosion
The ability of risk parity strategies — which typically rely on bonds moving in the opposite direction of stocks in order to appropriately diversify risk across the portfolio — to withstand the potential end of a multi-decade bull run in debt and simultaneous slump in equities has become a hot topic over the past year. The debate has been revived in recent months as analysts and investors fret over the ability of such systematic strategies to exacerbate swings in the market and worsen losses.

ZH: Sept. 27, 2016
Bond Stock Correlation Reaches Record High

Risk Parity Fund Rate of Change:

As long as Amazon doesn't roll over this will all be fine...

Competitive Debasement 2016: Clown Versus Clone

When two candidates are full time liars, which to choose?

The one who blows your brand of smoke up your ass. Then go to the voting booth and pull the slot machine handle to claim the booby prize. Act surprised. 

The only reason why Bernie Sanders is not in this race is because not enough of the right people are feeling pain yet. That's what the CapitalPlosion phase is for...

Speaking of which, contrary to mass delusion, Central Banks are not in control of this global race to the bottom, Free Trade is in control. Central Banks' job is to con as many people as possible into believing that both free trade and 0% money are really free. By all accounts they're doing a great job...

"...Now, we have come back from that abyss. And it has not been easy. So we’re now on the precipice of having a potentially much better economy"

Fed rate peaks with the stock market after semi-exact eight years:


Nikkei with BOJ assets:

Stuck in the '80s:

European stocks with combined Central Bank assets

IQ Test for stoned zombies:

Chinese stocks with GDP

Imagined Reality 2016:

Human History's Biggest Circle Jerk Is Ending

Futures were bid last evening due to the perceived Shillary debate "win". That Wall Street fantasy had the shelf life of a rotten banana...

% Bearish (4 week moving average):
Current reading: 38%
Four week moving average is at the same level as last August and last December...

Another long-anticipated OPEC circle jerk is ending:

Oil hourly:

JPY aka. overnight risk

Deutsche Bank aka. overnight risk

S&P with buying intensity. Or not...

This portends badly...
% of S&P stocks above 50 dma:


Monday, September 26, 2016

"This Is Not Lehman" Much

"Then we fixed the debt problem by borrowing more money..."

Another eight years of non-stop bullshit and corporate Shock doctrine
CNBS blowing smoke up everyone's asses non-stop
Global risk asset correlations at 100%
Carry trades unwinding
Financials, Transports, Energy, Materials, Resources, Housing, Autos, Retail all lagging
Defensive stocks liquidating
Global stocks rolled over
Oil/commodities imploding
China/EM imploding
Epic short-covering
Mass complacency/denial
IPO market pumped and dumped
Narrowing of breadth
One year of volatility and risk bought with both hands

World's most leveraged bank imploding. Check.

China implosion. Check.

China FX reserves (black) with Aussie/JPY:

Oil with imported deflation. Check.

Carry Trade unwind. Check. 

Rest of world implosion. Check:

Retail implosion. Check.


Cyclicals/autos imploding. Check.

Bad breadth, no support beneath the market. Check.

Nasdaq new 52 week highs:

Yield liquidating. Check.

Short-covering. Check.
SPX/R2K ratio

One year of volatility bought with both hands. Check.

S&P downside gaps w/Europe and Japan

Homebuilders imploding. Check.

IPO market pumped and dumped. Check.

Same fucking morons as last time. Check.

Mass complacency - heads firmly in asses. Check.

ZH: Sept. 26, 2016
"You Can't Compare Deutsche Bank To Lehman. Much"