Mass shootings, fentanyl suicides, industrial-scale human trafficking, biblical climate change, de facto global slavery. Life in a human toxic waste dump. One clown to rule them all. Looking back at past decades, Disney Trump was a step migration along America's journey from land of opportunity to land of opportunism:
"Opportunism is the conscious policy and practice of taking advantage of circumstances – with little regard for principles or with what the consequences are for others."
Judge not, lest ye not see what's coming...
Date: May 18th, 2019
Label: What A Fool Believes. Is Always Better Than Nothing
I'm watching the end of this gong show, I don't know what the fuck you're doing. Anyone associated with this clown act should be ashamed of themselves. Remember shame?
There are only two kinds of people in this world, those who care about others and those who only care about themselves. Crossing that Rubicon, one becomes a responsible adult. At present, the refugee-class of humanoid are dragging us into the abyss. A bad idea if there ever was one, now led by Captain Dumbfuck - the Twinkified bimbo re-arranging the world based on Twitter likes, for Christ sake. Hell by any other name.
The fact that no one sees this ending, is merely an indictment of the quality of society at this latent juncture.
In my lifetime watching failed U.S. misadventures in Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and throughout Latin America, one theme has remained consistent - the overwhelming compulsion to interfere in other countries' affairs, in order to deflect attention from problems at home.
At this latent juncture, Trump is "juggling" various potential interventions in every major theater, including Eastern Europe, all with the assumed belief, "this time will be different". The narrative is always the same, the good guys have to show the bad guys how it's done. Leave aside prior interventions that caused the conflicts in the first place. A clear eyed historian not enraptured by American mythology, and having a memory longer than :15 minutes, can draw a straight line between failed U.S. policies and every major foreign entanglement currently under consideration. The most obvious example being Central America where decades of failed attempts to impose Shock Doctrine capitalism has now backfired to the tune of 4,500 migrants per day at the U.S. border. The fantasy is always the same - solve all of the problems we helped create, and become the greatest president ever. Fuck it up however, and give the next clown a chance.
"What doesn’t seem to be guiding Trump’s thinking and actions is a clearly articulated strategy of the sort that has driven previous administrations. Instead, he seems guided by “America First” instincts and hunches that put the interests of the nation-state first, to be advanced globally through the leverage of maximum demands"
As always, the "strategy" consists of only one overriding motivation:
’What’s good for the United States – a foreign policy animated by the love of our unique way of life – is good for the world.”
"All presidents have learned that if they don’t match their goals with the means to achieve them, the result is failure. And more than a few dropped balls."
Date: May 17th, 2019
Label: The Clown To End All Clowns
Trump's amateur negotiating gimmicks brought over from his reality TV show, have brought the China trade war to an impasse.
Not impressed by TwitterTard diplomacy, the week of short-covering and BTFD ends with a threat from the Chinese to call off the talks:
China's nuclear option is to devalue the currency, which appears to be in play:
"...unlike other sessions, there was no sign Friday that the People’s Bank of China tried to stem the decline"
"...the largest weekly outflow since July 2015, the institute said Friday. That is when China’s equity markets were thrown into turmoil by the devaluation of the yuan. Investors weren’t just exiting Chinese equities, however, with total emerging market outflows totaling $13 billion"
The "TINA" trade is back
The S&P ended the week right at the 50 dma compliments of monthly OPEX market manipulation:
Semiconductors lagged all week, ending at critical support:
In summary, everyone has skin in the game whether they know it or not
Date: May 16th, 2019
Label: BTFD: Buy The Fucking Depression
How to retain global hegemony by shedding any semblance of global leadership? How to retain technology dominance by outsourcing manufacturing for maximum profit? How to keep stocks at a permanent plateau during the worst trade war since 1930? These are the problems preoccupying today's "No one saw it coming" Idiocracy, at this latent juncture.
"Consumer sentiment rocketed to its highest level in 15 years in early May as Americans grew more upbeat on the health of the economy and its path in 2019"
As I've said many times, hard to believe but economists can't predict the future by looking at the past. Far less so in the age of Ponzinomics. Now, instead of the economy driving asset prices, asset prices drive the economy. Which means that today's economic predictions have the veracity of a Magic 8 Ball.
Here we see consumer sentiment following the stock market. Asset momentum is a bong hit of speculative fervor that makes it impossible for the herd to see this coming:
As I said recently, the first quarter GDP "beat" was solely due to channel stuffing inventories to make the quarter. Now that con job is coming to light:
May 15th, 2019:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in April as households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, pointing to a slowdown in economic growth after a temporary boost from exports and inventories in the first quarter"
Given this society's unhealthy addiction to technology, it's highly fitting that the trade war has yet again escalated this week around Tech domination. If corporations had their way, there would be no employees, just 100% automation funded with 0% free poverty capital. At which point, Mad Max would seem like utopia. All of this was fully predicted 20 years ago at the Seattle WTO ("World Take Over") protests in 1999, when (ignored) protesters warned that Globalization 2.0 would end in global mass poverty and environmental destruction. Voila. Now, President Camacho will magically unwind 20 years of profit-motivated blunder via semi-literate Twitter fiat, all while keeping the Dow pinned at all time highs.
To believe in this dystopian fantasy one must be either brain dead or fully bought in to the concept of virtual reality. A machine-fabricated Matrix wholly devoid of truth, reality, and nature. What is social media other than everyone's personal reality TV show? The ability to Photo Shop one's own life into some sort of virtual reality paradise. Through it all, the corporate-owned batteries are drained at an ever faster rate. We have what I call a disposable society, wherein everything is disposable, including the people. All of the detritus thrown off by this society gets hidden in the "landfill". The "system" does not require us to care about the discards, the system is predicated on not caring. The day everyone starts caring is the day this exploitation scheme masquerading as an economy is 100% over.
My prediction remains the same: when the zombies rudely awaken to the fact that while trading sandwich photos on Facebook, they were immersed in a toxic waste dump, they will no longer trust the machines nor the people operating them.
Which gets us back to the casino. As it is with this Potemkin society, one would have no idea what is going on in the global economy by reading lamestream headlines. Here we see last week's five wave trade war escalation bottomed with this week's China retaliation, now rallying in three waves.
If the rally stops here, this would be the 1987 waterfall crash scenario:
As we see above, volatility peaked with the third wave lower which is when recession stocks bottomed. Subsequently they have led the rebound higher, making a new all time high today, unconfirmed by every other sector and index on the planet.
Which means that the volatility compression algos are working double overtime.
Bond yields are elucidating the chasmic gap between fantasy and reality.
In 2018, the Idiocracy bought a tax cut with both hands, which unexpectedly plunged the casino -20%. Undeterred, this year they are buying a tax increase with both hands:
The bursting Tech bubble was temporarily saved by strong earnings from Cisco followed by manic short-covering.
What was the largest bubble of 2019 has now morphed into the largest short trade:
"Global equities have proven resilient after the Trump administration fired a fresh salvo in a trade spat with China late Wednesday, issuing an executive order that bans telecom equipment from countries considered “foreign adversaries”
Label: Fully Invested In TrumpPlosion
The fact that Utilities and Bitcoin are now "leading" this rally is all anyone needs to know, it's over. Be that as it may, nowhere in the lamestream media will you see an acknowledgement that the party is over. Perma-bears are extinct, replaced by soon-to-be-extinct perma-bulls. The net effect of a central bank sponsored vacation from reality. The operating hypothesis via Zerohedge is that the under-hedged machines have taken massive losses and are primed for the next ride higher. My operating hypothesis is that aside from violent short-covering rallies the machines have lost control.
This era is testament to the amount of lies a society will believe and remain fully invested. Despite the fact that we learned last week that Trump's attempted management of the Federal Reserve is what caused China to tear up the trade agreement, he is back at it again. Angling for a bailout. He knows that only the Federal Reserve can save the casino now.
Sadly, for Rotten Donny, there is no means of unpopping a bubble once it's burst. Even Central Banks don't have that power. We've learned that lesson myriad times via gold (2011), Crude oil (2014), China Tech (2015), Bitcoins (2017), FANG stocks (2018), they never return to the previous highs.
He should know that, because as he says, China has the spigots wide open:
So it is with this "everything" bubble. Too late.
What I'm trying to say is that Wall Street's last pump and dump is over, having served its purpose of dumping this era's least profitable company onto the public:
Monday was a 90% down day, meaning 90% of NYSE stocks declining. Only Utilities were up, as a sector.
Selling pressure is rising, but no sign of panic, yet.
Wall Street has been monetizing their few remaining hedges into this decline, which has been slowing the descent. Yesterday the S&P took out the 50 day convincingly.
The 2800 level which was both support and resistance throughout this rally is now temporary support Tuesday morning:
The widely ignored NYSE composite which predicted October's reversal of fortune, and this latest one as well, is clinging to the 200 day.
Which means the wave count stands:
Instead of paying attention to facts and reality, gamblers have been listening to their trusted advisors.
The ones who no longer have fiduciary duty thanks to Trump.
In summary, trade wars are not as "good and easy to win" as people have been led to believe.
AND, it's far too late for the masses to "prepare".