Friday, June 23, 2017

The Soylent Idiocracy Has Done Questionable Things

McDonald's and Merck combined are going to kill more people than ISIS can even fathom...

Is it any surprise that these two stocks are now "leading" the recessionary market? And contrary to popular belief it's not because of automated burger dispensers. 

What it all comes down to is that the healthcare system can't afford to continue to subsidize junk lifestyles:

First off, back when Obamacare was under discussion, there was constant Idiocratic anxiety over "death panels", meaning panels of doctors who would decide who lived and who died based upon ability to pay. Never mind that fucktard dystopia, because with or without Obamacare, spiraling healthcare costs and an aging  society are a recipe for mass "euthanasia". In other words, death panels are already built into the insolvent system. Or put another way, few people who are over-indulging in the "good life" are going to be able to afford the downstream consequences of their own actions. 

But don't take my word for it:

GOP efforts so far have pointed to drastic cuts in the number of insured Americans and steep costs for older and sicker people

The only real control Americans can exert over their health-care costs is to work hard at staying in good health

In a perfect world, your retirement savings would be for travel and recreation, not brute survival

Hawley, a Republican, filed suit St. Louis Circuit Court, naming Endo Pharmaceuticals, Purdue Pharmaceuticals and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Hawley said at a news conference that the suit will seek "hundreds of millions of dollars" in both damages and civil penalties.

Hawley said the three companies over several years misrepresented the addictive risks of opioids, often using fraudulent science to back their claims. As a result, thousands of Missourians dealing with chronic pain were given unnecessary opioid prescriptions.

These lawsuits are not going to make drug costs go down.

In other words, doctors are the REAL drug dealers

Dumb Money Encore

I'm just going to keep putting out new counts until one works. That's what Prechter does, and he charges for it...

I'm more interested in the Nasdaq 100 right now (Facebook and friends):

The Muppet Show. Is Ending...

The Fed, Wall Street, and Trump are all lying constantly. Then again, why stop now?

This week, Skynet did everything possible to keep the casino levitated at all time highs, while the entire rest of the world disintegrated in broadly ignored daylight. By sheer coincidence, the second largest IPO of 2017 priced this week, as risk was coincidentally "on" for growth stocks...

The S&P has gone nowhere for three weeks:

The healthcare sector led this week on hopes for Obamacare repeal which  in the event did not come to pass. Minor detail:

Outside of the imploding reflation trade, risk was firmly "on" in the growth side of the 'barbell' trade, led by Biotech:

The yield end of the dumbbell trade was firmly "off" this week as consumer staples imploded

Oil implosion was the big markets story of the week; however we learned today that speculative longs would enjoy more pain:

Banks were duly monkey hammered this week:

Overall, it was a week for speculation as Bitcoin ran up the right shoulder:

Biotechs led but the FANG internet stocks put in a decent show as well:

The following bellwethers tell the tale of the tape for where we are in the cycle:

JnJ had a very good week along with healthcare:

Target had a rough week

Northern Trust put in a good show for financial advisory stocks:

And yet bank stocks such as Wells Fargo lagged

Bed, Bath & Beyond imploded

Sotheby's auctioneers to the ultra-wealthy had a great week:

In short, risk was fully embraced, which was coincidentally very helpful:

Then again, as we learned with Snapchat, next week is another story...

The Fed Is Stoking Deflation: 2 + 2 = 5

Depressed energy prices are stoking worries that the recent raft of weak inflation numbers may be more than “transitory,” which, analysts say, could derail the Fed’s timetable for future interest rate increases.

Optimism about the economy has faded since March with economic data surprising to the downside, he noted:

Let's see, what happened in early March:

Trump blew smoke up everyone's ass and the Fed believed him:

Now we know which end of the yield curve is right: Price Momentum Sell Signals On S&P 500 and S&P 100. Buy Signal on Thirty Year Bond ETF (TLT)

S&P 500 with price momentum:

Dollar gamblers never believed the Fed in the first place:

Now primed for a big leg down...

ZeroClue: McDonald's Just Over Invested In Collapse

It's called misallocation of poverty capital at the end of the cycle, driven by corporate Mad Men and cheered on by 12 year old bloggers. You see automation only works if every company doesn't do it at the same time.

"This gives us confidence to raise our 2018 U.S. same store sales forecast from 2% to 3%, in excess of Consensus Metrix’s 2.5%"

Don't be overly surprised when that doesn't happen...

"The stock market is luvin' McDonalds stock, which has continued its recent relentless rise to all time highs, up 26% YTD, oblivious to the carnage among the broader restaurant and fast-food sector" 

2 + 2 = 5

I'm lovin' it

But let's let the dullards figure that out for themselves

Thursday, June 22, 2017

The CappuccinoConomy Is Collapsing

According to Supply Side *free trade* orthodoxy, the Idiocracy has secured competitive advantage in cappuccino production. Unfortunately it's not a sustainable advantage, because $5 lattes are now competing with Maxwell House and tequila on the linoleum:

ZH: Austrian Economists' Advice On Deflation: "Just Go With The Flow"

"First, in historical fact, deflation has had no clear negative impact on aggregate production. Long-term decreases of the price level did not systematically correlate with lower growth rates than those that prevailed in comparable periods and/or countries with increasing price levels"

My answer: See 1929-1939 when GDP fell by -25% in three years amid unparalleled deflation

"Second, it is true that unexpectedly strong deflation can incite people to postpone purchase decisions. However, this does not by any sort of necessity slow down aggregate production"

A: Is this fake news? I've heard about this kind of thing before whereby people make assertions and then contradict themselves immediately afterward

"the great majority of the population—will by and large buy just as many consumers’ goods as they would have bought in a nondeflationary environment"

A: See next paragraph whereby he asserts that mass bankruptcy is not a problem. And then jump back to this section and pretend that it's not a hindrance on buying consumer goods.

In actual fact, then, consumption will slow down only marginally in a deflationary environment

A: It slowed down by -25% of GDP by 1933

And this marginal reduction of consumer spending, far from impairing aggregate production, will rather tend to increase it

A: Of course

Third, it is correct that deflation—especially unanticipated deflation—makes it more difficult to service debts contracted at a higher price level in the past. In the case of a massive deflation shock, widespread bankruptcy might result. Such consequences are certainly deplorable from the standpoint of the individual entrepreneurs and capitalists who own the firms, factories, and other productive assets when the deflationary shock hits. However, from the aggregate (social) point of view it does not matter 

A: We'll see you in the riots

Fourth, it is true that deflation more or less directly threatens the banking industry, because deflation makes it more difficult for bank customers to repay their debts and because widespread business failures are likely to have a direct negative impact on the liquidity of banks. However, for the same reasons that we just discussed, while this might be devastating for some banks, it is not so for society as a whole. 

A: We'll see you in the riots

In the light of the preceding considerations it appears that the problems entailed by deflation are much less formidable than they are in the opinion of present-day monetary authorities.

A: Batten down the hatches

Shock And Aw Fuck Not This Again!!!

By my calculation, all sectors have now peaked. The only thing holding this market up now is non-stop bullshit...

But don't take my word for it:

The Citi Economic U.S. Surprise Index, which measures data surprises relative to market expectations has gone from mildly curious to a real concern. The Treasury market has been most closely correlated to this index as bond yields have declined along with the disappointing data. Equities have been able to ignore this data, but the question is for how long?

Citigroup's Economic Surprise-You're-a-Fucktard Index

ZH: Current Version Of Senate Healthcare Bill Is DOA

Rand Paul and his fellow RepubliCons don't like the bill because it doesn't go far enough. Surely we can find a way to strip coverage from at least 50 to 60 million working people.

Bulls going ALL IN on the non-news garnered a key reversal in Biotech today:

Crude "bounced back" .5% today after a -23% decline:

Junk bonds are just starting to wake up to reality:

The REAL recession trade is on in full force. The one where holding Colgate is not deemed safe enough...

Banks held the 50 day moving average (barely)

Amazon held $1,000 for the second day (not shown)

The S&P closed weak right at the election trend line on decade low volume...

And of course, the jackass-in-chief admitted that he bullshitted about taping his Comey conversations

The joke is on the people who believe this tool:

"Any moron can see that the drilling and energy sector is way up"