Thursday, July 26, 2018

The Blodget Moment

All Ponzi schemes end suddenly and violently. This one will be no exception...

"You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done"

Because who would warn them?

What this all comes down to is where we are in the Ponzi cycle. 

HINT: Late

The definition of a Ponzi scheme is bidding up one's own assets while pretending to be wealthy. For example, like this:

Way back in Y2K, Henry Blodget
(founder of Business Insider) made his name by pumping junk internet stocks to the unsuspecting sheeple. A notoriety for which he was successfully sued by investors and banned from the Securities industry. His most infamous "call" was Amazon going to $400, which at the time was an unheard of price. It almost got there right before it all imploded. Fast forward ~twenty years and
Wall Street is now speculating which Tech stock will be the first to reach $1 trillion in market cap any day now. Deja vu of Y2K, it never occurs them that the most likely answer is...


After hours Amazon is oscillating precariously between $1800 and $1900 as revenues came in light and earnings came in double what was expected. Unfortunately, no one buys 200 P/E Tech stocks for their earnings. And crossing the valley from growth stock to value stock takes years or decades, not a CNBC minute. Which again raises the question, which if any mega cap Tech stock will be the first to reach $1 trillion, because the list is getting smaller by the day. Amazon needs to reach $2,060 to be a trillion dollar company (14% above today's close):

Remember Tech moonshots circa July 2015?

I do:

Google just needs to tack on another 14% to this moon launch...

Microsoft reported last week, making a new high this week, having a market cap of $850 billion. Still needs an 18% gain:

Which leaves one more company, reporting July 31st:

Apple needs a 5% gain:

Unfortunately, the freight train is coming from the other direction.

aka. "Overnight"