Friday, July 27, 2018

Global Synchronized Con Job. Is Over

We now have trade war assisted GDP, just to prove that there is absolutely nothing they won't believe...

"This may represent a mirage for the US administration by thinking that the US economy is accelerating rather than slowing"

The secret to living in an old age home is to keep lowering the bar. One moment they're strolling to 4pm dinner under their own power, the next moment they're just grateful to be wearing a diaper. Which happens to be the moment we are rapidly approaching...

The internet ETF hit a new high on Wednesday, pre-Facebook, and then gave back eight weeks of gains in two days.

THAT is a key reversal of fortune:

Going into next week, this entire con job now hangs on one stock

Any questions?

There are few numbers less relevant to what happens next than backwards looking GDP numbers. Add in the fact that the impending tariffs caused demand to be pulled forward and the U.S. fiscal deficit is running at twice last year's rate, and Q2 numbers become downright fraudulent.

In other words, the 'Conomy is doing great

Likewise, just as he didn't "Make coal great again", Trump's efforts to "help" the automobile industry, are doing far more harm than good, via higher interest rates, and higher commodity costs. But it can't be 2008 all over again, because as we see above the 'Conomy is doing great. 

“GM, Fiat Chrysler, and Ford all got ugly,” he writes, in reflecting on this past week’s action. And it happened “in unison” — “something we haven’t seen since the financial crisis.”

“This isn’t the financial crisis. This is as good as it gets."

Picture what happens to car sales if Trump includes automobiles in his trade war. Because, this is as good as it gets:

Meanwhile, the chart of the week has to be this one:

Which has to be viewed in the context of this one:

Speaking of setting the bar low, it's Wall Street tradition to lower the bar ahead of the quarter so everyone gets to look smart at the official announcement. Faceplant notwithstanding. 

"First, let's dispense with the big argument from the earlier part of this year that we are experiencing "peak earnings" and the market will go down from here."

"The move came after the company registered strong growth in its solutions business in second-quarter 2018."

Two high profile misses

There is only one solution for wealth inequality of this magnitude:

I call it: getting everyone on the "same page", about the downsides of continuous lying...