If starting trade wars on Twitter was bullish, starting real wars must be even more bullish:
As we see on the chart below, the battle for the 200 day has so far lasted 2.5 weeks. The battle for the 50 day (blue) lasted four weeks. The three-wave overlapping form is clear for both counter-trend rallies. Much ado about nothing. The current rally clearly far weaker. From a social mood perspective, everyone knows that trade wars are a buying opportunity. When that level got bought but ended lower it was on to buying WWIII. This would be the first hot war between the two nuclear powers in history.
Six months to nowhere...
On a daily chart, here we see the highest momentum stocks have carved out a perfectly symmetrical head and shoulders top.
Currently at the same level as mid-October despite above average volume.
Here is where it gets interesting from a social mood perspective. Despite the compounding risks, deteriorating breadth, and downtrend, complacency is the same as it was at the record high in January.