"There are times when an investor has no choice but to behave as though he believes in things that don't necessarily exist... that means being willing to be long risk assets in the full knowledge of two things: that those assets may have no qualitative support; and second, that this is all going to end painfully"
If GDP for ALL three months of Q1 can be revised from 5.5% to below 2% at the end of the quarter, what does that portend for the rest of the year?
The central tenet of Elliott Wave Theory is that social mood is the final arbiter of risk assets. While I agree to some extent, I don't fully subscribe to this thesis - for several reasons, chief among them the fact that Prechter has yet to prove definitively that economic reality does not exist. And I'm not holding my breath for that revelation. For example: euphoric social mood can exhort an individual to buy a new Ford F150 with all of the trimmings, at the end of the cycle, but it can't help him pay for it when interest rates rise:
Another fulcrum for stocks versus the economy are tariffs and rebalancing trade. Which has been Trump's focus since the casino peaked.
"The decline in retail sales last month was largely concentrated in auto dealers, gas stations and traditional department stores"