Mutual Fund Cash Balances:
1929
Wealth inequality at all time highs
New overconfident Republican President wins based upon a "pro business" platform
Rampant speculation at the end of the cycle causes largest crash in U.S. history, -90% in three years
1987
Blow-off top in anticipation of impending Reagan tax cut
Largest one day Dow crash in history
1997/1998
Asian Financial crisis caused by Yen hot money outflow and collapse of massively leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund
1999/2000
DotCom melt-up
Junk stock leadership
Fed playing catch-up on interest rates
2008
Multi-year debt binge on low interest rates leads to overleverage and global banking crisis
Falling dominoes are ignored all the way until Lehman
Massive short-covering rally just prior to collapse
2010
Flash Crash for unknown and unresolved reasons
ETF stop losses trigger circuit breakers leading to impaired price recovery
2011
Fiscal cliff debt crisis
2014
EM, Oil, commodity collapse caused by Fed policy diverging from rest of the world (ROW):
2015
China currency devaluation caused by strengthening of U.S. dollar ahead of impending interest rate increase
2017
All of the above, plus:
Highest debt levels in U.S. history
Longest period of low interest rates in world history
Weakest GDP growth in U.S. history, outside of recession
Global GDP and trade slowing
Largest oil glut in world history
Lack of hedging due to Central Bank accommodation
GDP negative net of debt
