Sunday, March 5, 2017

Three Steps Then "Aw Fuck, Not This Again!!!"

The worrying downtrend in U.S. Presidents is more promised, less delivered...

Before Trump can deliver any of his promised Ponzi-financed fiscal goodies, sometime whenever, he has to navigate the dreaded debt ceiling deja vu of 2011, which was the last time markets tanked -20%. In the meantime, the Fed will be doing their part by raising rates, and tightening liquidity, whether he can deliver or not. In other words stoned gamblers traded actual liquidity in exchange for Trump bullshit, and then went ALL IN...

Between 1919 and 2000, after the third Fed rate hike, stocks were, on average, 17 percent lower eighteen months after that sell signal was generated.

Let's see, jobs report Friday. The third Fed rate hike on March 15th. And a replay of the 2011 Fiscal Cliff debacle also on March 15th...

"There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace.  There will be no tax cut.  There will be no infrastructure stimulus.  There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.”

Price range of average S&P stock:


Rydex cash levels versus 2011:

Active Manager Exposure:

Bank risk exposure

Three steps? Or two steps?

You know you're a fake optimist when...

Fiscal Cliff 2017: