Monday, December 5, 2016

MAXIMUM CON JOB

Way back in October 2008, after all of the dominoes had fallen, Financials staged a furious short-covering rally when the TARP bailout bill passed Congress. 

Fast forward to today, three limit down "events" in one year later, and global Financials are staging a furious short-covering rally. 

Bueller? Bueller?

This time, European banks are locus of risk, so following last night's Italian referendum, no surprise, global Financials were bid today...

So let's take a look:

Global Financials just returned to the same level they were at when U.S. stocks peaked in 2015...



Citigroup, same idea...




Capital One Bank...







In summary:
"After Brexit and Trump, stocks went up and gold went down. Now investors are conditioned to do the same thing after the Italian referendum. This is backward looking. Typically, money is made by looking forward and not backward. However, due to the performance chase by money managers, driving while looking in the rear-view mirror instead of through the front windshield is likely to work until the year end."

I can't argue with that logic. And if it doesn't work, that's someone else's problem...