Monday, December 5, 2016

Countdown To Blastoff

In the last economic cycle aka. the Housing Bubble, the Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5% obliterating everyone who had loaded up on cheap debt. Then they realized that was a mistake, so instead this cycle they just kept interest rates at 0% for 8 years. Because everyone knows that's a better idea. Holy fuck, we're doomed...

One year ago, the Fed imploded global markets with a .25% interest rate hike, with a two week lagged effect. Given that nothing has changed for the better in the meantime, we have every right to believe it will be different this time, but on the off chance it's not, let's take a look...

The dollar peaked around the same time last year...


Big Cap tech rolled over at the end of December last year, whereas this year it rolled over at the end of November...

Nasdaq 100 with Relative Strength:


Amazon peaked at the very end of December, but this year peaked at the beginning of October...


Dividend/yield rolled over at the end of December last year, and July this year...


Emerging Markets just got monkey hammered by Forrest Trump and are staggering around waiting to go lower...



Oil is actually one month behind implosion schedule this year, whereas Energy stocks (black) have gone into blow-off mode...


Speaking of blow-off mode, Financials rolled over for the third time at the end of last December, whereas, they are in late stage blow-off now...


Risk Parity is one month ahead of last year...



Breadth momentum peaked at the end of December last year. This year it peaked at the end of November...


On Balance Volume
One month ahead of last year...


% of S&P above 200 dma:

Massive divergence compliments of the Trump fake reflation rally...