Thursday, April 14, 2016

HFT Tempting Fate. What Else?

The BATS HFT IPO do-over is tomorrow, into the worst IPO market in decades...the operative word is tempting fate...

In terms of IPO proceeds, 2016 year (to-date) is making 2008 look good...

IPO Proceeds ($billions):
Renaissance Capital - manager of IPO-focused ETFs. 






There are many reasons why the IPO market is dead: First of course, the dumb money left the casino. Secondly, private companies are now forced to take a valuation haircut when they go public - something they try to avoid for as long as possible, praying for a rebound. 

Third, the Russell 2000 growth index is lagging. Badly...
R2K Growth index with IPO proceeds:



The IPO market peaked two years ago with the Alibaba IPO which is a good tell for the health of the Chinese economy AND for the health of the S&P, since both tend to peak around the same time...



Likewise, Amazon also tends to peak at critical junctures:



Apple took back its 200 dma, but then again, it did so back in the Fall as well...



Today was a lot about filling that January gap in the Nasdaq 100 on zero volume...