Thursday, April 14, 2016

Low Volatility Is The Last Block Of The Jenga Pile

Global markets resemble the kids game "Jenga" wherein blocks are stacked into a multi-level tower and then one by one removed until the tower implodes...of course up until the time that it falls apart completely, it gives the illusion of stability...

As I've said many times, key sources of liquidity have been systematically depleted:
Central Banks
Carry trades
Momentum trades

Therefore for a swaying pile of shite, what could be left holding it together? The answer is self-evident: Low volatility. 

In a lethal game of cat and soon-to-be-dead mouse, volatility has been systematically crushed as a last resort to keep the jenga tower in place...

Bollinger band width:

Which means that when the last block is removed, all sources of liquidity will be gone at the same time...and the game will be over.

The worst performing sector of 2016, Financials, are finally "leading", but I wouldn't read too much into that...they had a good late stage bounce in 2008 as well...