Saturday, April 16, 2016

Ceteris Paribus, Collapse Is Not Underway In Broad Daylight

Economists only create economic cycles, they don't acknowledge them...Ceteris Paribus ("all else held equal") is how EconoDunces keep their jobs while being continuously wrong. They're taught from the earliest stages to rigorously ignore all aspects of reality, so they're experts at it...

Commodities w/Global GDP growth:

Reading ANY bullish assessment right now is an exercise in assiduously avoiding the vast majority of facts and data mining some obscure variable to reverse engineer a happy ending...

Ceteris paribus, the rest of the world does not exist. Oil is not imploding. Interest rates are not stuck at 0% after seven years. Profits are not imploding. Global growth is not slowing. Household incomes are not at a 20 year low. Mass layoffs are not the last resort to make the quarter. Debt is not GDP. Recession stocks are not leading. Institutions are not selling. Carry trades are not unwinding. China is not in Madoff meltdown mode. Global banks are not at 2008 levels. U.S. GDP is not grinding to a halt. 

Plundering 3.3% from the grandchildren to have 0% GDP at 0% interest rate. Holy fuck.  
The deficit was 2.5% just two weeks ago, remember...

And ignoring all that, therefore, stocks could go up or they could go down. But nobody really knows, because no one can predict what's already happened. 

"It was a Black Swan event. I saw nothing"