Monday, February 8, 2016

Greedthink: The Last Temptation of Wall Street

Overpaid dunces blowing denialistic smoke up each others' asses until they implode. Again.

The bear market rallies get steeper but shorter. Skynet's last trick is to short volatility, arbitraged by buying futures, to generate momentum. It's like pouring gasoline on a dying fire, it works less and less, because there are fewer buyers coming in to buy at the higher prices.

"after weeks of turmoil, highlighted by the worst start to a year for U.S. stocks on record, investors may have grown inured to the roller-coaster ride"

Here we see the inverse VIX (options implied volatility)
By the time they figure out it's already a bear market, it will be far too late. They are stair-stepping into the abyss...

Only a spike in implied volatility (VIX/VXO) will increase the risk:return ratio and bring new capital into this market, on the long side. And by the time that happens it will be game fucking over, are not efficient, they price risk lowest at tops and highest at bottoms, visualized here. It's known as "greed" and "fear", something they don't teach at Harvard i.e. that human beings are just hairless fucking monkeys who trust the same sociopaths over and over again...

The Wilshire Total Market index is well below the level from last August, but there's no panic. Yet.

Binary risk visualized aka. the inefficient market hypothesis:

ZH: Feb. 8, 2016
VIX Must Go Above 40 For High Yield To Bottom

40? Don't make me laugh. The VIX will be above 200 before stock markets aka. risk markets bottom. This will be the biggest crash in human history with only 1929 by comparison.

Junk bonds ("High yield") new low today:

"Covenant-Lite" aka. subprime Leveraged loans are the reason why oil companies keep oil flowing at these prices, because they're behind on their "payments". In other words the world's oil supply is MASSIVELY leveraged at the corporate, state and sovereign level. Bankruptcy looms.