Monday, February 8, 2016

The Smart Money Left The Station. Prechter Wasn't On It

I just cancelled my subscription to EWI, I haven't read anything over there for months now anyway; something about getting the *news* 24 hours later is not compelling. Prechter's an example of someone with a lot of knowledge who can't find his ass with both hands. There's no point in knowing something if you can't apply that knowledge in the real world.

He's been predicting that T-bonds were going lower, yields higher, for two years now. Why anyone who believes in the deflationary hypothesis would think that the nominal risk free rate is going higher, shows there's a massive disconnect between theory and reality. It's like someone predicting that the front end and the back end of a car will go in opposite directions. Not to say that Treasuries are safe for the next forever, only to say they are safe in the sequence of things. There will be many many defaults before Treasuries. If I'm wrong, we'll be living in caves anyway. 

Regardless of the bullshit, the smart money just left the station and it ain't coming back, until the shit hits the fan, if ever...