Monday, September 14, 2015

Every Risk Market In The World Has Peaked

"Is this another buying opportunity?"



When China's market crashed, denialists said, "Fortunately we don't export a lot to China". When Emerging Markets crashed, they said, "We're decoupled from Emerging Markets". When Canada fell into recession two weeks ago..."That's just because of China". The German Dax falling 20%, was greeted with a yawn.

Unfortunately, all four markets are perfectly correlated with the U.S. going back well over a decade...

As of recent lows: 
Shanghai: -44%
Emerging Markets: -28%
Canada: -18% 
Dax: -20% 

When your largest trading partner falls off a cliff, it's time to pay attention, at least it was in 2000 and 2008...


The Shanghai Composite topped exactly with the Dow in 2007, and so far in 2015...


The second (lower) peak in Emerging Markets came just before Lehman...


The Dax and S&P are form-fitted...