Friday, May 2, 2014

Peak Delusion: Is Everybody Happy?

This moment of peak delusion brought to you by Central Banks, HFT Bots, billionaires, Baby Boomers and other Dow worshippers...

The smart money has already left the building
Now the usual dumbfucks are on their own. As I said recently, "their fate is now sealed", the masses can't all get out at the same time without generating a HALO Crash.

Zerohedge just showed that Institutions have been selling to small investors for several months now. The ZH data concurs with the IBD.com distribution signal that has had them on "Market in Correction" mode for almost two months now i.e. the smartest speculators are on the sidelines.

Peak Jobs
Meanwhile, today was the best jobs number we've seen in a quite a while, so Treasury bonds sold off at first, but then rallied back and are now at their highest value (lowest yield) in a year. It's all a clear sign that institutions first rotated out of growth stocks into dividend stocks and are now selling dividend stocks to buy bonds.

"Houston, we have a fucking problem"
Why is it that bond yields are lower than they were back in 2009, during the depths of the "Great Recession?" And now falling again, despite the Fed reducing its bond buying program?

The Real Economy was sold to the highest bidder:


Pump and Dump
TRIN 200 DMA: Indicates institutional accumulation (falling) or distribution (rising)
When this turns up, shit breaks, as it did in 2010 with the Flash Crash and 2011 with the Debt Ceiling Crash:


What is needed to generate a HALO Crash is a market lingering at all time highs while the average stock has already been hammered into oblivion. That leaves a handful of massively overbought defensive stocks left holding up the entire shit show while the big money rotates into bonds, leaving the usual dumbfucks holding the bag.

One Chart to Rule Them All
Now only 58% of stocks above their 50 DMA


Historically Overbought
A Long Way to Fall
Now 17 months without a correction



The Inverted Dow
Attenuation: A reduction in the level of some property with distance, especially the amplitude of a wave or the strength of a signal.


Peak Delusion Has Arrived:

A 100% Bogus "Recovery"
All time high stock market margin debt (now declining)
Cycle high job creation (yet still fewer jobs than 2007)
Cycle high consumer sentiment (yet still lower than Y2K)
Cycle high bond yields (much lower than Y2K/2007 and now falling again)
Cycle high Fed liquidity (now falling and net negative)
Peak Leverage (now plateaued at 370% of GDP)
Cycle low savings rate (Lowest since 2008 recession)
Stalled GDP 
Peak IPOs/Speculation (now waning significantly)
Cycle low sovereign bond yields (i.e. 3% Spanish bond yield)
All Time High London Real Estate (The first quarter billion dollar condo)
All Time High Dow (inflation-adjusted, a mere 3% higher than it was in Y2K)

All of which means that we have reached Peak Delusion, all thanks to Fed Central Planning on behalf of billionaires.

Well at least some of us got out ahead of time...