For the first half of 2018, the U.S. was "winning" the global trade war. On Twitter only of course. A Jedi Mind Trick for weak minded fools that lasted the amount of time it takes to steer global capital into the last Trump casino. Right before it imploded vertical down into bear market. At which point correlation with the rest of the world soared back up to ~100%.
To the downside:
Global merchandise trade peaked in 2014 on a nominal dollar basis (data through end of year 2017). As of the end of 2016 trade was back to 2008 levels. 2018 was the year of the trade war.
Due to the tax cut, imports to the U.S. soared, vastly offsetting the effects of the trade war.
In 2018, the U.S. trade imbalance in goods reached record wide.
In 2018, the U.S. trade imbalance in goods reached record wide.
Once again, arrogance masquerading as competence:
The next casualty of tax cuts and tariffs was the U.S. housing market. Double teamed by a combination of higher interest rates to pay for the tax cut and tariffs on Canadian lumber:
As we see below, the spike in lumber prices lasted just long enough to collapse demand for U.S. housing:
Next, tax cuts and tariffs collapsed the U.S. auto sector.
Sadly, the tariffs on steel intended to assist U.S. steel mills backfired due to falling demand from industries that use steel:
U.S. Industrials imploded in 2018, due to overseas exposure:
The hardest hit were U.S. farmers now clinging to life support
Trump's obsession with keeping oil prices low for his base of demented hillbillies - even using a mutilated journalist as bargaining chip - has obliterated the U.S. oil sector:
Oil services stocks are far below 2009 lows:
Oil is hanging by a thread to final support:
