Monday, November 30, 2015

Too Big To Bail: No Way Out

Buy and hold zombies are trapped. There are no buyers under this fake market...

NYSE Distribution (up volume / total volume):

Rydex asset allocation: aka. marginal tool...

Equity put/call ratio:

NYSE Composite

Inverted VIX with Nasdaq 100 (weekly):

The Empire Is Under Big Mac Attack

"By the end, the consumption-oriented lifestyle was killing zombies at a rate that made ISIS look like amateurs"

"Just faking it all the time was taking a massive toll..."

Two years to nowhere:

The Global Dow (all world exchanges) is stalled at a level reached two years ago - and before that 2007:

Who likes charades?
France CAC (20 years):

London FTSE, back in 1999

"How to defeat ISIS?"
Does Faux News really want to defeat ISIS or just sell more advertisements?

It's the new McCheese bomb. It's a weapon of mass destruction - toxic waste that zombies eat like candy...And they only cost $1 each, but the Pentagon pays $5,000/per

Weapon of Mass Destruction:

The Idiocracy's greatest enemy, McChucks, is up 33% since August (215% annualized).

Who knew that killing zombies would be so profitable?

"We can't afford universal health coverage"


Carbon Sequestration: Buried By Cynical Bullshit

The glazed doughnut club has not even the slightest clue that the carbon shut-off program has been in development for seven years now...

They don't "believe" in global warming, and yet they cling to their own hubristic self-serving lies. All good. All that's needed for maximum carbon reduction is for cynical bullshit artists to keep blowing smoke up everyone's ass while their beloved status quo gets liquidated for special dividends. 

The biggest contributor to global warming is exceptional blowhards making fake promises at climate conferences that are broken before the champagne goes flat. All while cynical reality skeptics playing with their colouring books, tell us that it's just a hoax anyway.

Glazed doughnut visualized aka. Rush Limbaugh
"I entrust my faith and my future to Wall Street, McDonald's, Monsanto, and Exxon..." 

Let them believe what they want. 

Clearly this won't end without EVERY tool being ALL IN on the insolvent status quo, and we can't get there without the lying circus clowns.


How Do You Warn A Stoned Idiocracy? You Don't...

2015: The Big Short. Squeeze. aka. 2008 sans bailouts...

"Under the new rules, the Fed would prohibit emergency loans — or bailouts — to individual companies. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank would not have been able to bail out Bear Stearns and AIG in 2008."

"The performance spread between the ten largest stocks and the rest of the market is 20% - largest since 1999..."

Unfortunately, it's not 1999. the Idiocracy forgot about this thing called the 'Conomy..." which is far weaker now than it was 15 years ago.

Black Swan diving into pavement visualized:
Nasdaq with Fed Funds rate:

Sunday, November 29, 2015

The Sheeple Have Been Fleeced

"By the time the major averages collapsed, the sheeple had already been fleeced..."

The major averages - flat year over year - are concealing major pain. No one says anything, out of pride - and because they don't want the rest of Wall Street to liquidate their positions...

But first, Fed policy by Police Squad:

One of these is not like the others...Red line is the Treasury Yield curve (2Y - 30Y). Black line is Fed Funds rate...

CPI (RED, left scale) with Fed Funds rate:
"Inflation is anchored to 2% .12%"

Private equity is a canary in the coal mine
How about that flash crash? The stock delayed open on August 24th, while the NYSE specialist excuted orders 50% below the prior close...

“The specialist in KKR stole money from investors...he needs to give it back” 


Printing Money: The Idiocracy's Secret To Effortless Wealth

To a de facto Idiocracy, everything's a "Black Swan event"...

"When all else failed, they used printed money to boost the stock market, while corporations outsourced the economy for special dividends. The Idiocracy was shocked and outraged when it collapsed with extreme was clearly a Black Swan event, totally unpredictable..."

CNBC: Nov. 29, 2015
QE Quarterback: QE Failed to Help the Economy
"After three rounds of QE, the central bank has begun to question its own results...Consumer spending over the last seven years has been the most anemic on record...More recently, the head of the St. Louis Fed said there was no evidence that asset purchases provided ballast to growth. To be certain, the Fed's bond buying has its fair share of defenders..."

"Let's be clear about this: Printing money is not the answer to every economic ill..."

But when you need that "extra push to get you over the cliff". Where do you go?

The Jedi Mind Trick For Stunned Dunces aka. "Over the Cliff"
"We pushed the market way above its true value..."
Fed balance sheet (red) with interest rates (green)

"Fuck 'em, it can't happen to me..."
Foodstamps (recipients) (green) with Fed balance sheet

The Fed is way late raising rates according to the stock market...

The last two times momentum was this weak (aka. market top), the Fed was already easing...

Lowest market liquidity in 8 years...

Banana Republic liquidity. One better than 'Lord of the Flies...'
Average S&P futures liquidity by year (colour coded) and time of day bottom scale...

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Reality's Hunting The Free Lunch Club To Extinction

When you don't give a fuck about anyone else, no one gives a fuck about you...they have no idea what's coming...Anyone or any company that binges on 0% poverty capital will get wiped off the fucking map.

Finally, Free Money !!!

The bodies are stacking up in the 0% Muppet Show. But there are still nine universally over-owned stocks holding up the stock market, so there's no reason to panic. 950 P/E Amazon is a safe place to hide...
Emerging Markets
Carry Trades
Junk bonds
Exhibit A: Overinvestment

Supply Side Ponzinomics for Full Retards aka. "The Free Lunch Club"

"It can't happen to me"

Net exports with interest rates aka. "Free money":

History will not be kind

"No Blind Fucktard Saw That Coming"

There are now nine massively overbought, overowned, and over-valued stocks holding up the entire market. When the inevitable crash occurs, over-educated dunces (aka. 'PhDs') will inform us it was a "Black Swan" event...

Short of a meteor strike, there are no true "Black Swan" events in financial markets. There are only greedy morons onboarding ever more leverage until they implode with extreme dislocation. PhDs coined the self-serving term "Black Swan event", in vain hope of not being labelled serial fucktards with the commonsense of a door knob...

As of right now, There are nine mega-cap stocks holding up the entire market: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Starbucks, Salesforce, Priceline and Ebay. These nine stocks are up an average of 60% while the S&P is up 1% on the year. Without these stocks, the market is fucked company. 

"Look, it's a Black Swan event!!!"

CasinoConomy: "No blind man saw that coming!"

The Internet Fund aka. (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Ebay, Netflix, Priceline)

Reality Is a "Hoax": Denialists Demand "More Proof"

Today's reality skeptics playing with their coloring books, would like to be buried in proof. For once we agree on something...

The infantile Idiocracy is bounding head first into the dumpster of history. There's no one to stop them:

To this late date, today's Madoff alchemists have squandered untold trillions to propagate their Potemkin fantasy. They've used every gimmick conceivable to monetize the future. Throwing away their life savings away on Amazon, Shanghai-style, they themselves are the last part of this illusion. And yet they still require more proof...

Self-burial costs, and counting:
Global Dow with global growth rate (red)

Today's hedonistic, nihilistic, denialists need more proof...

Proof that the planet is buckling from the consumption oriented lifestyle

Proof that Wall Street can't be trusted. Again.

Proof that corporations won't put them out of a job

Proof that politicians are ALL clueless morons

Proof that EconoDunces have absolutely no clue what they're doing

Proof that they're an Idiocracy bankrupting themselves

Proof that Faux News is fake

Proof that Free Trade isn't *free*

Proof that Globalization is insolvent

Proof that ISIS is a symptom of a much bigger problem aka. corporate colonialism

That "missing proof" they seek so badly is all going to arrive at the same time. When reality calls the Idiocracy's bluff. 

And the Idiocracy folds like a cheap tent amid carbon self-sequestration:

Free Lunch: The Last Temptation Of Terminal Idiocracy

"When 1% interest rates didn't achieve full bankruptcy, they switched to 0% instead. No one questioned 'the system'..."

The Free Trade/Free Lunch club imported poverty, and recycled it into low interest rates to subsidize leveraged consumption. All of which made perfect sense to EconoDunces, because there was never any connection made between low prices, low interest rates, and low wages. Implausible deniability being the opiate of the deeply stoned masses... 

Low prices, low wages, low interest rates. Always: 

When 1% for one year ended catastrophically, they used 0% for seven years to finish the job...

Mutual Assured Bankruptcy:
35 years later and 'no one' questioned 'the system':

Fed Funds with capacity utilization:

Jobs / U.S. population:

Fed Funds with consumption sentimentality aka. the last temptation of the Idiocracy...

Friday, November 27, 2015

Dumb Luck Is Not An Investing Strategy

This would be a lot more fun if we hadn't been through it three times in the past 15 years...we could all pretend we don't know how it will end...

"They Tracked ISIS While Wall Street Robbed Them Blind. Again"

"They were tracking ISIS babies infiltrating from Mexico as berry pickers, when 'collapse came out of nowhere'"

"ISIS dropped cheeseburgers from the air to increase their kill rate by 92,000x. Chris Christie was slain by a platoon of Big Macs..."

Insiders were selling with both hands, using corporate cash to buyback stock and raise prices while they exited. It was all "corruption as usual"...

Someone, somewhere with deep pockets knew something and was betting accordingly...

ALL TIME HIGH Bets on a crash

Put option skew. Instances of skew > 136 (50 dma):

All values. 50 dma: