Monday, October 31, 2016

The Zuckerberg Omen

Nasdaq 100 with new highs. Last year's October FOMC meeting is circled:

Exactly one stock out of 100 hit a new high today (red line is 5 dma):

The Google ground and pound is in position:

U.S. markets new highs - lows:

Utilities are trying to keep this shit show afloat...


Artificial Intelligence

The Idiocracy never misses a chance to make the same mistake twice. Preferably, three or four times, until they're totally fucking buried...

The set-up right now is eerily similar to pre-Brexit. As it was back then, VIX was uncharacteristically bid into the FOMC meeting (Tues/Wed), which meant that hedging was becoming increasingly unaffordable. Meanwhile, gamblers were massively complacent relative to the impending Brexit vote. In the event, they walked into a limit down buzz saw, but that didn't stop them from going ALL IN anyway. Why, I can't say...

That was such a bad idea, that now they're going to try it all over again, this time from the other direction, with FOMC this week, the election next week, and a jobs report in between...


"Welcome To The Hotel Californication"

Maximum Risk. Exposure:

"FOMC meetings accounts for 80 percent of annual realized excess stock returns."

"That got a lot of attention on trading desks"

ZH: Oct. 31, 2016
The VIX Curve Is Sending A Warning Signal

VIX / VXV (Spot / 3 month)

Deja Vu of Brexit, volatility shorts are betting that the U.S. election will be a non-event:

2x Volatility ETF short interest:

In other words, risk exposure is at maximum, and one by one the lies will be exposed to a stunned Idiocracy ALL IN on the status quo...

"Oil futures retreated Monday on lingering negative sentiment around proposed production cuts by major oil producing nations after a weekend meeting of major oil producers made little progress."

"Morgan Stanley said in a note that the recent discussions with non-OPEC members aimed at increasing market confidence only succeeded in achieving the opposite."

Jedi Mind Trick for stunned dunces:

Fed Funds (green) with Fed balance sheet and average U.S. stock:

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Dumb Beta: The Triumph Of Buy And Implode

ZH: Oct. 30, 2016
Hedge Fund Redemptions On Track To Match 2009

"The transition from active management to passive has been devastating"

The Ackman Fund

The Icahn Fund


Dumb Beta aka. Buy and Implode:

Belief in Central Banks is TOTAL:

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Good News: The Lies Are All Priced In

In the coming week, we will learn:

Whether or not OPEC is bluffing. Again. 

Whether or not Hillary will be the next President or sent to jail

Whether or not China has any control left over their currency

Whether or not Deutsche Bank is solvent

Whether or not Saudi Arabia is solvent, pending OPEC news

Whether or not the Fed will raise rates once in December. Exactly one year ago, the Fed sealed the deal on a December rate hike. Stocks tanked. 

Whether or not Mayor McJob's recovery continues, or if the nascent pounding of restaurant stocks bodes poorly for the labor farce participation rate...

Regardless of the lies and chicanery, the "technical" situation facing the casino, can be summed up thusly:

Internet stocks (red) with % of S&P above 200 day moving average. Last year's decisive October Fed meeting is circled in blue:

Zuckerberg Shrugged:

New Highs Nasdaq 100. Last year's Fed meeting circled. 

I think we all see where I'm going with this:

"I'm Lovin' It"

Labor Market Conditions Index:

MW: Oct. 29, 2016
Amazon's Stock Chart Warns The Ride May Be Over


Friday, October 28, 2016

The Last Volatility Cycle

ZH: Oct. 28, 2016
Volatility Bets Highest Since August 2015
As the chart below shows, the spikes in VIX Call/Put ratio has tended to successfully lead a spike in VIX a number of times...

VIX Call/Put ratio (red)

Looking at dozens of charts, I've noticed that the VIX CP ratio tracks small cap stocks the closest...

It tracks Chinese stocks pretty close too...

And it predicts devaluation extremely well...

This Week In Ponzi Collapse

"The Idiocracy would believe ANYTHING, except reality..."


Consumption Sentiment and Real Estate both imploded this week. 

Big pharma got monkey hammered...Partly due to Billary and partly due to McKesson's imploding quarter...

The Big Long: Addicted To Bullshit

Fake recovery
Fake GDP
Fake OPEC agreement
Fake infotainment
Fake leaders
Fake change

All for fake people...

Chart of the week is Toll Brothers homebuilders
"Then we borrowed our way out of a debt crisis..."

This is going to hurt like a motherfucker...

2008 was the Big Short, whereas this circle jerk is the Big Long:

Even the Idiocracy is going to learn a lesson about trusting serial psychopaths this time...

"Dude, where's the 'Conomy?"

Trick Or Treat?

Today confirmed that Hillary is 100% priced in...bulltards need to pray that this new investigation goes nowhere...

Also on tap this weekend...

ZH: Oct. 28, 2016
OPEC Deal At Risk: Iraq AND Iran Refuse to Cut Output

Chinese Yuan went fugazi when liquidity crashed this afternoon aka. more risk impairity...

Volume is from the 2x leveraged volatility ETF:


Another busted IPO. Priced at $16, which means that the Wall Street "insiders" who bought it are already at a loss...

"Keep dumping until shit breaks"

As long as 2120 doesn't break, this will all be fine...

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Oil Producer Crash Bets At Decade High

ZH: Oct. 27, 2016
Producer Oil Shorts Highest Since 2007

This means that U.S. oil producers are hedged by any decline in the price of oil and can economically produce even if the price crashes...they now have economic incentive to push the price lower...

They seem to have a good timing record in the past eight years:
By contrast, speculative longs (dumb money) are all time high, and have far worse timing...

Burial by Oil: