Thursday, March 31, 2016

A Wafer Thin Flash Crash From Final Implosion

And we already know where it's going to come from...currency reversal:

The month and quarter ended today, so according to the Efficient Bonus Hypothesis, the market should roll over any minute now +/- tomorrow's jobless report...

Yen carry is the ONLY part of the global risk trade that didn't rally in the past 8 weeks. Meaning there's some catching down to do. And that is going to happen "off hours"...

Only one of these will be right in the end...

Aussie / Yen aka. "China"

Yuan with Aussie / Yen

Oi !!!

Trend gaps from the last two sell-offs, 20+ downside points...

Each spike in price / volume occurred during a low volume/volatility period, which was followed by high volume/volatility:

The Most Over-Crowded Trade In History: The "Safety Trade"

High dividend yielding stocks are the most crowded trade in this entire cycle. And the last trade keeping this clusterfuck from imploding with extreme dislocation...

The High Yield Dividend Fund
EVERYTHING I'm trying to say is summed up in this one chart. Two Flash Crashes. And two vertical blow-offs coming at the pinnacle of two bear markets. All wrapped into the perceived "SAFEST" stocks. BY FAR the most over-crowded trade in seven years...

The Hotel Californication Visualized

Third biggest holding in DVY is toilet paper company Kimberly Clark

"They were well stocked for what came next"

2nd biggest holding: Philip Morris

Largest holding: Lockheed Martin. What else
"Keynesian bombing of foreigners" is always well funded

Another stock that peaks at the pinnacle of every bear market:

I noticed that the General Dynamics indicator already rolled over...

Over-crowded visualized
The P/E ratio of the perceived "safest" stocks:

Bonus Chart:

U.S. Oil ETF: Two identical rallies exactly one year apart...only different in duration and magnitude...

ZERO LIQUIDITY: The Status Quo Will End Overnight

"Global collapse was a 'buying opportunity'"

All sources of liquidity have been systematically depleted over a two year period. Meaning that all global risk markets will vertical collapse at the same time...we've only had two years' of notice...

Zero Liquidity visualized Today:

Zero Liquidity visualized 2010 and 2015:
On August 24, 2015 Dozens of ETFs including the one below, lost five years of gains at the open...
Trading was halted 1200 times on individual securities. 600 ETFs were halted.
In the first half-hour, volumes were 10 times the average... 

The bear market began in 2014 at the same time as the QE tapering. It began with cyclical sector implosion, the Global stock market peak, oil peak, credit/junk bond peak, China FX reserves liquidation. 

Subsequently all sources of liquidity have been systematically depleted: Carry trades, Central Banks, Momentum traders, Profits/buybacks. 

All of which is leading to ZERO LIQUIDITY.

China FX Reserves with All World Index:

NYSE Liquidation (Total volume):

Transports: "Is this the end of the bull market?"

Oil / oil stocks

Small caps with 52 week momentum:

Relative strength

Junk bonds

Global Stocks w/correlation to S&P:

IPO proceeds:Year-to-date -88% compared to last year...

JPY aka. saving this for a special occasion...

Euro Stoxx aka. "The IQ test"

Globalization Is Run By Arrogant Dumbfucks. Lethal.

Today's Best and Brightest are neither...
When China's Commie Capitalists adopted the "market" system, they assumed they would still have full control. China has as much control over their currency as they have over their economy and stock market: Zero.

The rest of the world is along for the implosion...

Yuan with U.S. Oil and Gas stocks:

Yuan with FX Reserves

Chinese stocks with GDP growth rate

The Efficient Bonus Hypothesis

I noticed that stocks have been peaking at the end of each month and then tanking. Along with oil. Sans short-covering, the spot oil market will be located again this month and stocks will be along for the ride...

Oil inventories at record high levels. Massive increase in speculative net long positions. Oil producers hedging two years of production. Contango curve flattening. Stocks record correlation to oil...

"The net effect of the rise in oil price is that it's now very economical for marginal producers that have thousands of drilled uncompleted wells, to now bring those online immediately..." 

"I hate to interrupt, but isn't that all bullish?"

"Uh, No"

It's this guy again, free money man. Click on picture to watch video, you can't make this shit up...

Speculative net longs (red) with WTI
Data from:

The efficient bonus hypothesis
Except for the past two months due to short-covering, stocks and oil have peaked at the end of every month, since October...
Oil is red:

Another weekly increase in oil inventories
The contango curve flattening means that oil producers hedged in the oil futures market which allows them to continue producing and flooding the spot market...

The Spot market is well below the current futures price...
The May - June futures spread keeps widening, meaning the USO ETF now has to absorb a -3.5% rollover loss starting April 6th - 11th, the rollover "window".

This brings up the "find the spot market" scenario I posited several weeks ago...

February rollover window is in the red box:

The spot market will be located again, by April 11th without short-covering as support and "stocks" will be along for the ride...


Last Stage BEAR Market aka. HALO CRASH

HALO CRASH: A crash originating near all time highs...

Today's dunces actually believe that the bull market is still going, when it's the bear market that is approaching its last stages. Key reversals in the Nasdaq and XLP (consumer staples), will be followed by the Elliot Straight Down Wave...

The collapse I've been predicting non-stop has been taking place non-stop, one country, asset class, sector and stock at a time. I said the crash would occur from all time index highs, so this shouldn't disappoint, but given my blog stats, I expect it will disappoint almost everyone. Apologies to the attention deficit collapse Idiocracy, without which a panic crash couldn't occur.

Last stage BEAR market visualized:
Consumer Staples (Recession stocks) in a parabolic overthrow...

ZH: March 30, 2016
The Acid Queen Herds The Sheeple Into Risk

"Look, it's free money forever!!!"

As the bear market progresses, the more economically sensitive sectors underperform the less economically sensitive sectors, until they all go down together. The volatility regime confirms this is a late stage bear market that started two years ago:

(VIX is S&P 500, VXO is S&P 100 which has more cyclical stocks):

A rolling bear market...
Timeframe in which each sector peaked:

Stocks, Corporate Profits, Interest Rates

Collapse in broad daylight visualized
The average stock with Fed Funds rate:

The Freedom To Be A Mindless Drone

The charlatans running this clusterfuck will dissolve into liquid shit with the meltdown...plan accordingly, others are...the "Apocalypse ETF" is seeing massive inflows...

You can tell when someone's lying when they invoke "Jesus", "God", or "Freedom". If they invoke all three, you can assume they're as fake and hypocritical as the day is long...anyone who actually believed in those things wouldn't be chanting them like some mindless corporate whore. I met a Christian one time, she never talked she only helped people all the time, that's how I knew she was Christian.  

The term *freedom* is the most bastardized word on the planet. Propagandists use it non-stop, because they all have their own warped definition for what it means. For one example, the only type of debt that can't be discharged in (U.S.) bankruptcy, is student loans. Corporations can borrow untold billions of unsecured debt to buy back ponzi stock and then walk away in the next meltdown, but not students. That's because freedom has devolved into the exact opposite of what it means. Now it means indentured corporate servitude at ever-lower pay.  

And of course *free* trade means the freedom to be "right sized" by RomneyBots, for special dividends. While the good Mormon son et al. pass judgement on the 47% indolent masses they just laid off.  

What is freedom?

Freedom to be exploited?

Freedom to exploit?

Freedom to broadcast lies and delusion?

Freedom to be locked in a cycle of poverty?

Freedom to sell something you didn't build in the first place?

Freedom to sue and be sued?

Freedom to pollute the fuck out of the planet?

Freedom to pollute oneself and have others foot the bill?

Freedom to buy five types of insurance?

Freedom to invade other countries on false pretense, and then camp out for decades?

Freedom to buy elections?

Land mines, napalm, depleted uranium, cluster bombs, drones, "precision guided" munitions, 15 carrier groups?

I don't have the universal definition for freedom. The problem is that no one does. Because if they did, that would be the beginning of accountability. And the old age home abhors accountability. So instead, they just talk non-stop and do nothing. The signature of stagnation.

Change begins with a definition that is arrived at by consensus and not handed down by corrupt charlatans. 

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

The Housing "Recovery"

This is what awaits all of the countries that didn't learn from 2008...

U.S. New Home Sales

Home Builder stocks

Home Prices
At the same level as they were 11 years ago...

There's No Such Thing As A "Consumer"

Everyone's coming around to my point of view, but they want to get fucked over first. Whatever works...

The term "consumer" was invented by EconoFucktards so they could pass *Free* Trade agreements to enrich billunaires at the expense of everyone else.

Obama State of the Union. January, 2016
"Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction. (Applause.) "

To paraphrase the latest sock puppet in chief:
"Voting For President Is Like Picking-Out Which Gun You Wanna Get Shot With"

Fact Check:
There are no "consumers" to be found in Obama's 'Conomy:





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