Friday, August 31, 2018

Caveat Emperor

Camacho-in-chief is everything unholy that has been inflicted upon this planet - crass, cynical, ignorant, arrogant, denialistic, bigoted, and stupid to the fucking core. The latest Frankenmonster hatched by the Banana Republican Party, sent to finish the job started by their last village idiot, who couldn't get the job done. I suggest that won't be a problem this time...

Trump made good on his promise yesterday to deliver "more good news" for the stock market, by escalating trade wars with China, Europe, and Canada ahead of the long weekend. Because he cares so much about the little guy:

Any questions?

"A rule that would require that all financial advisors to act in their clients' best interests with regard to their retirement accounts has been killed."

"Demand that the individual puts in writing they are fiduciaries at all times for all advice in the relationship...The vast majority of financial professionals will not be able to do that."

I would agree

Caught between tax cut fueled Y2K melt-ups and escalating trade wars, Emerging Markets are imploding:

Which can only be good news of course:

August is ending the exact same way January ended:

Except this rally wasn't the same quality as January's.

Spot the difference:

What could go wrong?

China escalation:

"The “new export order” subindex in China’s official purchasing manager index – fell sharply in August even when only a small portion of Washington’s threatened additional tariffs on Chinese products kicked in...marking the first time China has had a three-month export downturn in two years.

The data was released after US President Donald Trump was reportedly keen to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports into the US as soon as a public comment period concludes next week"

"We're winning, because our casino is the one that's most in denial"

European escalation:

"The European Union will respond in kind if U.S. President Donald Trump reneges on his pledge not to impose car tariffs, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said as trade tensions between Europe and the United States rose again."

China, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia...

"Indonesia’s rupiah slid to a two-decade low, spurring intervention from the central bank as the meltdown in Argentina and Turkey raises scrutiny on emerging markets with current account deficits."

“I don’t think there’s as much downside risk to the rupiah until we see China devalues its currency significantly”

Let me know when that happens...

"And tell me when I should begin to worry, I'll take some off the table"

This explains all of the above:

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Banana Republican

Trumptopians are ALL IN betting that Trump represents the beginning of a new economic super-cycle, predicated upon the plundering of all future generations. Whereas unfortunately he heralds the exact opposite - the ignominious dying days of an erstwhile global super-power. There's a reason why they picked a con man to make American great again - no one else was up to the task...

The ease and speed with which Larry Kudlow just flipped from being a lifelong Reaganite Supply-Sider to being an ardent tariff negotiator, shows that the right's only true ideology was expediency. Post-bailout they have no functioning ideology. Now their hopes are pinned on someone who makes Bernie Madoff look innocent by comparison.  

Speaking of which, the Croupier-In-Chief promises more big gains are coming. It's all going to come down to how many people are left to con...

Let's take another look at the sectors that Trump has "helped" the most:





But really all he has done is helped to accelerate the process of moving the entire "economy" online where it can bypass the entire economy. To the benefit of the "jobless consumer", beneficiary of Supply Side Ponzinomics.

"Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to introduce legislation next month to give large employers like Amazon and Walmart the choice to either pay workers a higher wage or to pay taxes equal to the total cost of federal assistance programs their workers use.

The proposal aims to raise taxes from large corporations equal to the amount that the company’s low-wage employees use in federal benefit programs each year. If an Amazon employee uses $100 in food stamps, Amazon would be taxed $100."

Call it the Banana Republic bill

18 years, but who's counting?

There's no question that without a bailout this joker wouldn't still be blowing smoke up everyone's ass...

Note which economically diversified company is not confirming the S&P 500's new all time high. Not enough Go Daddy in this portfolio.


Wednesday, August 29, 2018

MOMENTUM MEGA CRASH aka. Reversal of Fortune

Don't worry, it will be quick and painful. Fortunately, they don't see it coming. Fantasy and delusion are the new "normal". In summary, Ponzi capitalism has run its course. History will not be overly impressed by a bunch of fucking Bernie Madoffs who conned themselves. But then again, how else would this end?

The problem with the United States in a nutshell, is that the country doesn't give a fuck about its workforce. 

That will be its undoing. 

At the May Day FOMC meeting the Fed made it clear that more rate hikes are coming regardless of trade wars or EM meltdown. Since then, the U.S. has been trending higher while the rest of the world has been trending lower.

Ponzi capitalism is about to learn a good lesson about what happens when you run out of people to exploit. 

"...To salute as happy one that is still in the midst of life and hazard, we think as little safe and conclusive as to crown and proclaim as victorious the wrestler that is yet in the ring." - Solon by Plutarch

Gamblers have crowded into fewer and fewer high momentum stocks, under the assumption that they are the only safe haven from global implosion. Small cap growth has been the clear winner, because everyone knows that the stocks with the least earnings give the best protection from global trade wars and imploding global economy.

The junkiest stocks in the entire casino are now holding up the entire casino:

The summar melt-up began in May and reached critical mass in August:

Move along, nothing to see here...

Coincidentally, Apple's earnings reports were on the same days as the FOMC meetings, providing more momentum:

Hedge Funds' largest holding approaches the $1 trillion dollar club

Disintegrating breadth has been assiduously ignored

Everything Emerging Markets is rolling over again, but Go Daddy is a reliable safe haven...

Shock and awe will arrive overnight. Limit down, compliments of ETF stop losses

It will be quick and painful

There will be no way out

Volatility short sellers have taken care of that already...

Even better than last time: