Monday, February 2, 2015

1929 Deja Vu: "No One Saw It Coming"

Irving Fisher, 1929:
"Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau"

"Way back in 1929, no one seemed to notice that commodities had peaked several years earlier. They also didn't pay too much attention to the fact that bonds had peaked a year earlier as well. Stocks continued ploughing ahead on their own as if they could never go down again."

Commodities:
Peaked in 2007, lower high in 2011, lower high in 2014:


Credit Spreads (the difference between high yield rates and Treasuries):
w/Correlation vis-a-vis stocks (bottom pane)
i.e. Rolled over last January


The Dow Today:


We're not "owed" any more warning