"Good News: New All Time Lies This Week"

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Russell / Dow Ratio

U.S. Dollar with Johnson & Johnson (gray):

Rydex Bearish Assets

% of S&P Above 200 dma

Schwab with IPOs

Ameritrade

Pharma

Rest of the World

Mind the Gap

"I heard there's a referendum on Sunday that could implode the Italian banking sector with spillover effects across Europe and the rest of the world. What should I do?"

"You better max out on financials ahead of Sunday"

"Why didn't I think of that?"

"This is why we get paid the big bucks"

Last leg of the stool:

Financials versus rest of the S&P 500...

Buying Up All The Lies With Both Hands. What Else?

The biggest lie this week was the OPEC "deal", two years in the making, to cut global daily production by 1.1%, back to where it was six month ago, assuming zero cheating. And assuming that U.S. producers don't continue to ramp up production...

This just in:
Dec. 2, 2016
Baker Hughes Reports Increase In U.S. Rig Count

And of course, today's jobs report indicated that the relentless swapping out of high quality jobs for low quality jobs - the theme of Obama's Presidency - continues unabated.

Here we see the Labor Participation Rate for 25-54 year olds (red) with the "official" unemployment rate, which excludes the long-term unemployed. In other words, the unemployment rate is a function of people giving up on finding a decent job:

This Sunday is the Italian Referendum to decide whether or not to concentrate MORE power into the hands of the incumbent megalomaniac:

CNBC:
The latest opinion polls, published before a two-week blackout phase of polling in Italy, indicated a 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent in favor of the "no" camp. 

Officials and senior bankers according to various media reports anticipate that up to eight of Italy's troubled lenders are at risk of failure should Renzi lose the upcoming referendum.

Global financials rallied into this event, what else?

Then on December 14th, the Fed will decide whether or not to raise rates at the end of the cycle, for the first time ever.

What economy? CasinoConomy? Wherein a bunch of serial dumbfucks bid up their OWN stocks, while telling themselves they're wealthy?

Last but not least, the other massive lie that was already bought with both hands is the Trump reflationary corruption rally itself - the bidding up of junk cyclicals which had their heyday in the 1950s. This fake rally is already rapidly losing steam, an inconvenient month early.

This is the wage "reflation" behind this fake rally. Deja vu of 2008...

Generation Fraud Conned Themselves This Time

They ran out of easy options so they decided to become a generation of con artists. It just seemed easier than facing the truth...

The Baby Boomers were "selected" to be the exceptional generation that drove themselves straight into the brick wall of reality, while lying to themselves the entire time. About everything: the Ponzi 'Conomy, Globalization, the stock market, their children's future, the environment, fake exceptionalism. All of it...

According to human Twinkie, Martin Armstrong - like all boy-men of a certain age - no longer capable of truth or reality in any way shape or form, Global Warming is a government conspiracy to foist Socialism onto the unwitting masses.

Therefore those of us who "believe" that 7.3 billion human beings are consuming this planet into oblivion are paid by the Rothschilds to propagate this hoax. Because clearly, throwing 97 million barrels of carbon into the atmosphere every day has improved beach front access. And clearly Exxon's scientists know more than the UN Commission on climate change, since they are part of the hoax as well. 

This is the same guy who asserts that Socialism has allowed global multinationals to take over the planet and otherwise made 1% of the population wealthier than everyone else. Ponzi Capitalism is a Socialist plot to enrich the Koch Brothers. 

In other words, it's all a fraud, and I am part of it. 

But do you know what else is a fraud?

Most of ZeroHedge and the fucktards who write on it. It's the National Enquirer of financial news. And from now on, I will no longer cite anything from the criminals who write on it. 

In 2009, shortly after the blog was founded, news reports identified Daniel Ivandjiiski, a Bulgarian-born former hedge-fund analyst who was barred from the industry for insider trading by FINRA in 2008, as the founder of the site, and reported that "Durden" was a pseudonym for Ivandjiiski.

Views[edit]
Armstrong believes man made climate change is a fraud.[7]

Criminal conviction[edit]
In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators determined that Armstrong had been collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly "commingling" these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading.[8] Assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Bank, which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong's investors. In 2001, the bank agreed to pay US$606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal.[9]

Armstrong was indicted in 1999...He was released from Federal custody on September 2, 2011.


Speaking of criminals:

"One of Exxon’s senior scientists noted in 1977—11 years before a NASA scientist sounded the alarm about global warming during congressional testimony—that “the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels.”

Exxon is the only stock keeping the Energy complex from collapsing...

So good luck to generation fraud who conned themselves this time...

Because now that the OPEC lie is out of the way, the brick wall of reality is approaching...

BINARY Core Meltdown Phase. NO WAY OUT.

Either yields keep rising, monkey hammering eight years of accumulated global ponzi debt, dividend stocks, real estate, Muni bonds, Emerging Market currencies, and the entire Nasdaq growth complex which had extrapolated a 0% discount rate into infinity...

OR,

Human history's most crowded cyclical "reflation" trade unwinds violently... 

"Economists expect that hiring picked up and the economy added 175,000 jobs in November, but markets are bracing for an even higher number, north of 200,000."

"That's the buzz," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. It was also the speculation in the bond market Thursday, where traders used the Friday jobs report as part of an excuse to sell, driving interest rates sharply higher. Cashin said there's speculation that weather-related hits to hiring in October may create a stronger-than-expected spring-back in November."

The irony that a "too hot" jobs report could implode this entire Ponzi scheme can't possibly be overlooked...

One year Treasury yield (red) with % of S&P 500 above 200 dma:

Utilities

Consumer staples

And, if the number is weak, then this unwinds. Again...

USDJPY carry with Financials:

This ludicrous nonsense...

JP Morgan

Freedom To Be Used Up And Thrown Away

No word is more bastardized than the term 'Freedom'. 

Freedom to be rich? Freedom to be poor? Freedom to exploit? Freedom to be exploited? Freedom to lie? Freedom to be lied to? Freedom to get bailed out? Freedom to be sued? Freedom to go bankrupt from medical bills?

How about freedom to work an entire lifetime and lose it all at the end in the Dow casino?

Boy-man Trudeau was roundly criticized for heaping faint praise on Fidel Castro last week. The criticisms are all the same, - he was a tyrant dictator who left his people impoverished.

In other words, the leader of a tiny island nation who overthrew a U.S. puppet dictator and then sustained 50+ years of U.S. embargoes which impoverished his people is a tyrant. 

What should he have become, a servile vassal state that allowed his nation to be plundered for fun and profit? Like all of the other American bitch states across the 'developed' world?

People who've been bilked multiple times by the exact same serial psychopaths would do well not to criticize the way of life of others until they look in the mirror and realize their 'freedom' is a well-cultivated illusion. And that their entire life was spent as an obedient corporate disposable battery, now nearing end of useful life.  

Castro will have the last laugh, because Cubans will be the least affected by what comes next. 

There are no 'winners' under Globalization. There are just arrogant dunces who think they're better than everyone else. And who don't possess the brain power to figure it all out. 

Yet.

"Eight years after the taxpayer-led bailout, they let Goldman Sachs run their Treasury all over again. The first thing they did was privatize all of the previously bailed out companies"

"No way"

"Yes way, they were Terminal Idiocracy. To paraphrase George Orwell - a special breed of moron meant not to see it coming"

"After all, the housing bubble had finally recovered from a decade earlier. And their attention deficit didn't allow them to remember how it all happened..."

"So they were 'free' to get bent over the log all over again by their trusted corporate masters..."

"And then, there were none. And no one talked about 'free trade' ever again. The end"
"What happened to all of the human Twinkies?"
"They tried to move to Cuba"

LIMIT DOWN RISK

Parking one's head in their own ass is not being an "optimist"...

The Dow was up today compliments of Trump nominating Goldman Sachs to run Treasury:

However, the Wilshire/Dow ratio portends badly...

If tomorrow's jobless report is weak like the last one, then the massively overbought USDJPY carry trade will unwind ahead of Italy's referendum on Sunday...

There have been three limit down S&P futures events in the past 18 months. So far...

Lending more credence to my theory is the fact that the dollar index is already reversing 

with USDJPY (gray):

Meanwhile, China is in Quantitative Tightening mode, which tends to monkey hammer global stocks

Here we see the Offshore Yuan with Alibaba which was down almost 5% today...

Risk Impairity will be another source of overnight downside, coming off the worst month since last December...

Circled...

Doh!

All of which will be fine, as long as Europe doesn't final implode at 3am Eastern...

Prepare for island reversal of fortune. You know, like last time wave 'c' completed...

Of course if the jobs report is running hot, then this shit show will spontaneously implode...

Not too many good options when everyone's on the wrong side of the boat

"It's Called Circle-Jerk-O-Nomics"

It's as dumb as the people who believe in it...

According to Elliott Wave Social Mood theory, stock prices are a manifestation of how people feel. Full stop. When they are optimistic they buy stocks, when they are pessimistic they sell stocks. Conversely, according to fundamental analysts, stock prices represent the fundamentals of the economy and forward profits. Which works great, until it fails catastrophically. The economy ALWAYS runs hottest at the end of the cycle due to supply constraints, wage increases etc. That leads to Monetary tightening which ends the financial cycle. In other words, fundamentals are strongest at the peak in stocks. Not necessarily the best buy signal. Kind of like what's happening right now.  

However, my humble theory of casino prices is a combination of Social Mood, fundamentals, and this thing called the greed feedback loop. In other words, people buy stocks in anticipation of improved profits, stock prices rise leading to improved social mood, they buy more junk on Amazon, then they increase their earnings projections, then they buy more stocks etc. etc...

I call it Circle-Jerk-O-Nomics.

Let's see how it works...

Before Trump got elected, his winning the election was going to cause major downside:

"Clinton's odds in the prediction markets had been closer to 80 percent, and at that level, a Trump victory would have triggered an 8 to 10 percent sell-off"

Fast forward four weeks of vertical rally. 

ZH: Dec. 1, 2016
The World Has Suddenly Changed For The Better Since Trump
"Average S&P Analyst Target Before Trump: 2,087; After Trump: 2,425"

In other words, not only did the selloff not materialize, but a massive rally ensued, AND then they raised estimates after the rally. 

You can't make this shit up. But one thing is for certain. 

They do. 

And some people have no choice to believe in further upside, because they're running out of time, and it's not their money anyway...

Hedge funds versus Dow:

"This is why we get paid the big bucks"

Clarification: They didn't bet big. They bet it all.

Betting It All On OPEC aka. Panic Collapse On Deck

When they finally learn they can't trust serial psychopaths, the underwear will be permanently stained...

Speaking of which:

Nasdaq 100 / Dow Ratio:

This stagnant Idiocracy of human twinkies is "exceptional" only in the sense that it's constantly lowering the bar for itself and then stepping over it to claim "victory". It's a society handing out soccer trophies to eveyone just for fogging a mirror. 

Is this really a reason to go ALL IN at the end of the cycle? You have to be fucking kidding me:

Oil keeps ripping post OPEC solely due to short covering...

That's the good news, plus small banks going ever more vertical. Here's another look at the Oil ETF:

Here's the bad news...

Nasdaq 100 with relative strength

Internet stocks

Treasuries with Yield (red) and VIX (gray). What could go wrong?