Monday, May 2, 2016

We're All Socialists Now aka. Riot Control

2008 and the past 8 years was just socialism for the ultra-wealthy, this is socialism for everyone else...

My hypothesis has been that this all ends in mass rioting and anarchy. It appears that our stooge elitists have figured out the same thing...Nevertheless, I almost shit a brick when I saw this article on Bloomberg today...




"The notion that government should guarantee every citizen an annual stipend of, say, $10,000 -- no strings attached, no questions asked -- is being studied by politicians, economists and policy experts worldwide."

"In the social democracies of Europe, Canada and South America, experiments are planned or underway. In the U.S., it's still little more than a concept -- one that appears to have more conservative backers than liberal ones."

With no eligibility criteria or enforcement needed, administrative costs would be bare-bones. Waste, fraud and abuse would be greatly reduced, the argument goes, if not close to zero. "

Would they do it? We're about 10,000 Dow points +/- from finding out. They've already proven they will do literally ANYTHING to maintain their hegemony over this clusterfuck. After all, it's cheaper than rebuilding the country. But as Weimar Germany proves, it will only work for about 5 years as the output gap and deflationary state prevails, after which wheel barrows will be in short supply...and gold. 

Recall: Firearm background checks:


Helicopter money (for the masses) has a deflationary lag and then inflation takes off...




Greedthink: UnHedged Funds Are Imploding

Dart throwing monkeys perform far better than the vast majority of hedge funds...




"Hedge funds lost 1.9 percent in the first quarter, according to Hedge Fund Research’s global index, the poorest performance since 2008. The industry had net outflows of $16.6 billion in the last two quarters, the most since 2009, according to HFR. In 2015, 979 funds closed, more than any year since 2009, according to the research firm."

Now, according to Zerohedge, they're all piled into the exact same momentum trades. What could go wrong.

It gets worse, or better, in a delayed act of justice, Congress hammered hedge fund "activist" (blackmailer) Bill Ackman last week for Valeant's practice of buying pharmaceutical companies and then jacking up prices. 




Here is the punchline, despite jacking up their prices, the hedge fund favourite stock has tanked due to the company being accused of running a ponzi scheme by using a subsidiary retailer to stockpile inventory.

This is a ponzi scheme where the only ones who got conned were hedge funds:




100% Idiocracy: An Undying Faith In Money Printing

Printing money to create effortless wealth only works when you print an unlimited amount of it. No half measures will suffice...

ZH: May 2, 2016
Goldman Throws In the Towel on USDJPY Rally for Now

"Until the BOJ stops being so lazy with their money printing program, we are now bearish USDJPY" 


In other words, $3 trillion of balance sheet expansion which is now backfiring and unwinding, is not enough. You can do more dammit!!!

The dumbest society in human history...
BOJ balance sheet (red) with USDJPY:



China unwinding visualized...

USDJPY can indeed fall much further:





Printing Money Has Never Been Greater

"...for me. Fuck everyone else..."







"Corporate profits have recovered from the crisis"
Corporate profits baselined to GDP




Minimum Wage adjusted for inflation (red line) 2013 dollars:
Minimum wage was higher in 1968 by 50% than it is now...




Capacity Utilization is better than ever...



Real household income, better than 1994...




Obamanomics: Foodstamps w/Labor Participation rate:


The Jedi Mind Trick 
The first non-recovery in U.S. history
-3% GDP ex-deficit visualized aka. 0% recovery





Sunday, May 1, 2016

The High Cost of Charades: Oil In A Nutshell

The rally in the futures market has delayed the oil market from finding bottom. The next leg down will do the trick as oil gets pile drived lower...



A futures-driven market in a perpetual state of contango (futures price higher than spot) indicating severe glut, embeds ENORMOUS losses. As indicated by the ETF which absorbs those losses...

The sound of money being flushed down the toilet...the third failed rally attempt in a year on colossal volume...




USO:WTI ratio % change: -75%



A Flash Crash MegaPlosion @ Third Wave Down

Every sector is about to take a hit at the same time and "no one" sees it coming, too busy piling into junk bonds. This should be interesting...

Below are the largest U.S. stocks by market cap i.e. the only stocks that really matter:

These were all down on the week except Exxon, Amazon, Facebook and At&T all of which had high volume key reversals this week...when these are all red at the same time, it's game over man...

In order of size:

Tech


Tech


Tech:


Energy



Diversified Cyclicals

Crash From All Time Highs

"No one saw it coming. Because printing money was their secret to effortless wealth"



"Don't worry, we're decoupled from Globalization"
Global stocks versus U.S.:




NO LIQUIDITY
China crack-up boom
Record high oil inventories, record long oil futures, fake rally
Record junk bond inflows
Record municipal bond inflows
Massively overowned dividend stocks
EVERY sector rolled over
Record low Rydex cash balances
Nasdaq third wave down
Financials third wave down
Low volume/volatility
Low put volume/extreme complacency
JPY RISK OFF out of control
Price momentum, breadth mometum, money flow rollover
GDP - 3% ex-deficit
Fifth quarter of profit decline, amid mass layoffs

Massive insider selling. For a reason...
Profit yield:




Despite record monetary stimulus, China's economy is re-entering stall mode...

Reuters May 1, 2016
China PMIs Raise Doubts About Sustainability of Recovery

"South Korea reported April demand from China was the worst in three months, with exports to its biggest market tumbling 18.4 percent on-year."

"China's factories continued to shed workers, with staff cuts quickening from the previous month"

"China's Big Five banks reported last week that their bad loans had increased by 53.2 billion yuan ($8.21 billion) in the first quarter."



Financials Collapse

The two biggest sectors, Tech and Financials are both in third wave down...

Washington has turned into a den of deceivers...100% corrupt:




Bank index:





Goldman Sachs



American Express


Franklin Templeton



Ameriprise



Invesco



Blackstone

FucktardNation: Fool Me Three Times, Shame On Me





"Anyone who says that printing money isn't the secret to effortless wealth, is peddling fiction"




Hope and Change doesn't buy as much as it used to:
Foodstamps (red) with employment population ratio...




"I had no idea why they call them junk bonds"



"My investment advisor told me collapse is a major buying opportunity, so I went ALL IN"





"It Can't Happen To Me"

"Collapse is a buying opportunity"




When they came for the Third World, I enjoyed the cheap junk at Walmart

When they came for the Developing nations, I bought an SUV to take advantage of cheap oil

When they came for the manufacturing jobs, I maxed out at 0% interest rates

When they came for the science and engineering jobs, I was relieved that the geeks were out of the way of marketing

When they came for China, I loaded up on junk bonds to protect my assets

When they came for my job, I never saw it coming. How could I, I don't know anything



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