Saturday, April 2, 2016

All That's Left Is The "Madoff Moment"

2+2=5
It's a culture of exploitation, entitlement, and delusion to assume that someone else will do the exact same things we used to do, but for 1/10th the wage...

Prior to Globalization, what separated the developed world from the "Third World", was a mentality of exploitation. I mean business "opportunity". Globalization was supposed to bring the Third World up to developed world living standards, instead it's collapsing the developed world down to Third World standards. Only the exact opposite result of what we were sold by greedy psychopaths, all so they could monetize poverty at 0%.

China was the superstar of Globalization, so its collapse in broad daylight should have been the wake up call that "this" was all ending sooner rather than later. After all, China is the marginal buyer of everything. Unfortunately, self-absorbed zombies stewing in junk food and junk culture won't be awakened from their stoned coma, until the "Madoff Moment"...





"The End of Poverty". Remember that? I do. 
Bono and Professor Jeffrey Sachs extolling the virtues of Globalization circa 2005. Then all of that fantasy bullshit, which was purely a function of cheap debt ironically funded by poverty, collapsed with extreme dislocation. "Oh well, off to another adventure". Post-2008, per the textbook, China initiated the largest fiscal ("Keynesian") stimulus program in human history. Their New Deal. For their part, beleagured developed nations ran MASSIVE deficits just to maintain status quo, whereas China stimulated the entire world in 2009. Construction, commodities, technology, finance. I think we all see where I'm going with this...

China's FX Reserves red with oil:



Junk bonds with China's Reserves
aka. Subprime x 3:
"The high-yield market has doubled in size, to nearly $2 trillion, just since the 2008 financial crisis. The growth is fueled in part by the results of that crisis, such as the prolonged period of extremely low interest rates. When deposit accounts yield nearly nothing, investors are driven to consider the significantly higher yields available from these bonds, despite the higher risk."




Global Dow 




Like a ballistic missile launching, then coasting at altitude, and now falling, China's economy was "launched" by that fiscal stimulus, but there was no follow-through. The fantasy that China would create a middle class, was unfortunately monetized by multinational corporations.

Now China devalues their currency continuously to catch down to Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand etc. who've become the lowest cost producers. China is no longer competitive, as evidenced by a staggering -25% collapse in exports last month.

In other words, a minimum wage of eighty cents is no longer competitive. Corporations demand lower.

Now, go back to last August 11th last year. China finally buckled under the pressure of their dwindling reserves (above) and exports, and they devalued the currency. What happened the next day? No sooner had they devalued to alleviate pressures on exports, than their "suppliers" aka. Walmart and company demanded all of the cost reduction flow to them. 


"The currencies of all our big trading partners other than China have become substantially cheaper and if they continue to become more attractive businesses will start changing their buying patterns," [Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia etc."]

In other words, Financial bankruptcy begins with moral bankruptcy. 


Indeed.





A Party of One aka. The Last Pump And Dump

Central Banks couldn't create real wealth, so they created a fake wealth delusion instead. Good enough to con stoned zombies watching Faux News, to be sure. The U.S. (S&P 500) is now the only major market above the 200 DMA and near all time highs, solely due to recession stocks...

Faux News: "The Last to KnowTM"



After 2008, Central Banks couldn't fix the global PonziConomy, so instead they inflated one asset bubble after another, to create a "trickle down" fake wealth effect. There was a bubble and bust in every asset class and sector this cycle, but the bubble in U.S. recession stocks will be the last one.

"People forget...it's bullshit!!!"





The European Stoxx600 includes 600 companies from 18 European countries, including the UK:



London FTSE:



Japan Nikkei



Shanghai Composite

Friday, April 1, 2016

In Greed We Trust








April Fools. Who Do You Trust?


Lying psychopaths?




Yen versus S&P?




Oil versus S&P (weekly correlation 95%)?


Treasuries versus S&P?



Global Stocks ex-U.S. versus S&P?




The low volume, low volatility "regime" ?
Price / volume:




Overnight Gaps?



The Hotel Californication?




The Nasdaq?




China?




Corporate Mad Men?




The Efficient Bonus Hypothesis?




The Acid Queen?










Pillars Of Salt And Sand

"One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castles stand
Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand"
Livin La Vida - Coldplay


There are thousands of ideologies, beliefs, and religions, but only one reality. So choose carefully, the gap always gets closed, it's only a function of time...

At critical junctures such as this, rigour demands that we consider the other side of the argument, the bullish case. What is the bullish argument? Is it making the same mistakes over and over again, each time expecting a different result? Is it trusting the same serial psychopaths over and over again, each time expecting a different result? Is it Ponzi borrowing. Printing money to buy stocks. Imploding profits. Fake job statistics. Global growth slowdown. Sector by sector rotation implosion. Systematically depleting all sources of liquidity?

There is only one bullish argument: Time. In other words, "this clusterfuck hasn't imploded entirely yet, therefore it won't". The same argument that was advanced in 2007. 

Yes, that is the sole argument. Because given enough time people will believe ANYTHING. Life is not denominated in money, it's denominated in time, and hairless monkeys aren't going to wait around for fashionably late reality, when they can worship the golden calf instead.






The bullish argument is that there is none. Just hairless monkeys with zero collective memory. History teaches us that people don't learn from history.

They don't realize this is nothing new.

"Rome seeks its own glory, wars against other peoples to subjugate them, revels in material existence, lives off the work of slave labor, allows many to die of poverty and starvation, and promotes entertaining circuses and gladiator spectacle."





"It Ended With a Bubble In Recession Stocks. What Else?"

Only the Idiocracy would try to monetize a recession...

"When you get to level 10, where can you go? Nowhere, exactly. These go to 11"


Clorox Bleach / Ratio of S&P:



Dollar Store



Spices



Frozen Foods



General Foods


Waste Management


Utilities



McDonald's

0% Recovery. Betting It All On Proven Failure

Monetary policy is like burning your house down to keep your hands warm. It's a great idea if you don't mind losing everything...This week, the Acid Queen, Janet Yellen, gave gamblers the green light to go ALL IN on RISK, so they did. Because this would only end if they didn't see it coming...




The past seven years has not been a recovery, it's been the exact opposite - eliminating the foundations of the economy, while speculators gambled with *free* money. The definition of an Idiocracy is trusting the same circus clowns over and over again, each time expecting a different result. 

It's a measure of the ludicrous ignorance and arrogance of this era that the same failed buffoons are still in charge of the economy after decades of serial failure. The Bush/Greenspan recovery was predicated upon 1% easy money, which ended with extreme dislocation after seven years of lying by corrupt buffoons in government, business, and media.

"Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity -- myself especially -- are in a state of shocked disbelief,"
- Alan Greenspan on The Big Short aka. 2008

Seven years later, Deja Vu, using the exact same "policies". What is even more amazing is that unlike last time, interest rates have not normalized, which today's stoned gamblers have erroneously construed as a sign of "low risk". When of course it's an indication of extreme risk.  

MW: March 30th, 2016
Why You Shouldn't Fear Collapsing Profits
“It is the Fed, not falling profits, that kills economic expansions and in this case it hasn’t even begun to sharpen the knife,” 


Putting On the Risk:
In other words, there was always only one way this could all end - amid rampant gambling, a failed recovery, and extreme implosion. It was only a question of how many people could be conned by Central Bank psychopaths for the third bubble in 15 years. This week, the Acid Queen, Yellen, gave gamblers the green light to go ALL IN on risk...

With a recovery like this, who needs enemies?
Output gap (blue) with Fed Funds (red). Monetary policy kept the casino running while corporations monetized the economy. Under Bush. And again under Obama:







"Fasten Your Seat Belts, We're Approaching Terminal Idiocracy"

Skynet is monetizing volatility ahead of volatility, compliments of the jobless report. All while global risk rises relentlessly, and gamblers seek "safety" in the most overvalued sector...

Overnight Japan got shellacked, a minor side effect of Yellen's flip flopping dollar policy...



Deutsche Bank is reaching for a new weekly low, another side effect of Fed policy by Police Squad...



And deja vu of February, oil is re-discovering the spot market as rollover expiration approaches...



Nothwithstanding today's disconnect, correlation between oil and stocks remains at 95%:



Treasuries and stocks disagreeing over the 'Conomy...we know which one is right...







Consumer staples bounced off the trendline and continue to go vertical towards binary implosion land where Biotech, Fracking, Chinese internet stocks, and Netflix have already gone before...



All gaps are below the market...



"By the end, 3x overvalued soup companies were trading like internet stocks, and crashed accordingly. It was the vertical 'safety' trade"



There's no way out of the Hotel Californication...




If You're Not Pissed Off, You're Fucking Stoned

Shit jobs up. Good jobs down. 

Every day in March, 1,000 manufacturing jobs were lost...

BBG: April 1, 2016
Manufacturing Jobs -29,000 for March. Largest Drop Since December 2009

"The number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons rose by 135,000 to 6.12 million, the highest since August."

Part time, low paying jobs are at a level associated with recession:



Foodstamps versus Labor Participation Rate



Foodstamps with corporate profits (indexed to GDP):




Fed funds with manufacturing jobs aka. "capacity utilization"



Manufacturing jobs and wages



Rate of change: Corporate profits (blue) with payrolls (red):