Friday, April 1, 2016

Pillars Of Salt And Sand

"One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castles stand
Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand"
Livin La Vida - Coldplay

There are thousands of ideologies, beliefs, and religions, but only one reality. So choose carefully, the gap always gets closed, it's only a function of time...

At critical junctures such as this, rigour demands that we consider the other side of the argument, the bullish case. What is the bullish argument? Is it making the same mistakes over and over again, each time expecting a different result? Is it trusting the same serial psychopaths over and over again, each time expecting a different result? Is it Ponzi borrowing. Printing money to buy stocks. Imploding profits. Fake job statistics. Global growth slowdown. Sector by sector rotation implosion. Systematically depleting all sources of liquidity?

There is only one bullish argument: Time. In other words, "this clusterfuck hasn't imploded entirely yet, therefore it won't". The same argument that was advanced in 2007. 

Yes, that is the sole argument. Because given enough time people will believe ANYTHING. Life is not denominated in money, it's denominated in time, and hairless monkeys aren't going to wait around for fashionably late reality, when they can worship the golden calf instead.

The bullish argument is that there is none. Just hairless monkeys with zero collective memory. History teaches us that people don't learn from history.

They don't realize this is nothing new.

"Rome seeks its own glory, wars against other peoples to subjugate them, revels in material existence, lives off the work of slave labor, allows many to die of poverty and starvation, and promotes entertaining circuses and gladiator spectacle."