Thursday, November 6, 2014

Out of the Pan Into the Fire



As a first step to repay their loyal voters, Republicans will now repeal Obamacare so their unemployed constituents can more easily bankrupt themselves on medical bills...

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The Minsky Cycle

The Canadian Dollar, Oil and Russian Ruble are all at new multi-year lows this week
The Russian sanctions are starting to boomerang back to the Globalized Ponzi scheme some euphemistically call the "Economy". Today's policy dunces will realize far too late that Globalization has massively correlated all economies. Or didn't we remember that from 2013 when Cyprus, an island state of a million people, nearly defaulted?

Global Macro
Canadian Dollar, Russian Stocks, Crude Oil, Copper:


I knew I had seen that shape somewhere


I was asking for a "sign", but all I got was the inconvenient truth staring me in the face.

Social Mood Update: Hope and Change back to Rage and War

Obama's Extend-and-Pretend con job cost the Democrats the House of Representatives in 2010 and now the Senate
Stocks versus Jobs
You can't fool all of the people all of the time. 


Or Can You?



Tuesday, November 4, 2014

The Lies Will Continue Until Morality Improves

Mid-term game show host election farce today

Americans have 8% confidence in the obligatory lies and bullshit


There are a statistically irrelevant few who don't want to be lied to. Then there are those who insist upon being lied to. Then, the silent majority who don't have any real choice...

Another Domino Falls

Risk in credit markets has been diverging from stocks since the start of this year

Credit Spreads
We've never seen this before...(it's probably nothing)
The High Yield bond ETF as a ratio of long-term Treasury prices. 
Correlation w/S&P 500, lower pane.


Everyone's going to act so surprised when this all collapses like a cheap tent.

h/t MW: The Only Divergence that Matters, Nov. 3, 2014

Monday, November 3, 2014

OPM: Other People's Money

ZH: Nov. 3rd, 2014
Unhedged funds were obliterated in October
"Someone" soiled their underwear and reached for protection at the bottom of the steepest short-covering rally in years

The average hedge fund was down -1.7% in October compared to the S&P which gained 2.3% in October. A massive 4% performance gap a mere 8 weeks from bonus time. 

Singularly correlated hedge funds were shorting the Russell 2000 small cap index which had been underperforming all year until it rose 11% in three weeks (see below).
 “The only way you’re going to pick up performance is by being fully invested.”

“In the next two months, we’re going to see people add a lot more risk and that’s going to help the market rise.”

Russell 2000 Small Cap
Now versus 2008: 
Single left shoulder, double head, double right shoulder. 
So far, so bad...


Well, as long as it's someone else's money, why not?

Archaeology Today

Since blogging about reality in real-time, is the functional equivalent of pounding sand up my ass, I'm switching to archaeology instead.

The blog of course won't change a bit - the only difference is that the target audience will show up a bit later (aka. post-burial).

In the meantime, don't blame me if casino bets are not working out as expected - this non-recoverable rocket launch to oblivion wasn't my idea.

35 Years of Voodoo Economic "Success"

Mid-term Democrats are shunning Obama's pseudo-recovery consisting of 8 million McJobs costing a mere million dollars of debt apiece
After all, when it comes to lying, let's not be ridiculous

This Just In via Bloomberg:
Speaking of ridiculous, 70% of Americans saw their real median wages decline 9% since 1979 i.e. those without a degree. Those with a degree, saw a 23% total increase which equates to .63% per year. 



Sunday, November 2, 2014

Deflation #Winning! Abject failure is the new "success"

For the miniscule few who still care about such trivial things as facts, below is the Deflationary Body Count. Despite the assertions of rampant liars, the home team is not #winning!:

Then, there were none


While denialists were talking non-stop about the great "bull market", Globalization claimed ~75% of major world markets in broad daylight. The rest are on borrowed time and money.

The denialists have merely inverted the term "success", similar to their self-inflicted war against ISIS. Now, being a massive lying failure and getting away with it for as long as possible, is the definition of "success". Cue mid-term game show host elections.