Three years ago today when Trump got elected, the overnight futures were limit down. However, by the time Europe closed late morning East Coast time, the markets had u-turned, closing green.
It's clear in hindsight that Wall Street needed Trump to restore faith in corruption, and thereby bring the herd back to the casino, so they could exit.
Not one day can go by when some billionaire isn't warning that Elizabeth Warren is going to tank the markets, whereas Herbert Hoover will keep them bid up forever, with non-stop Twitter bullshit.
With one full year left until the election, sadly hardened denialists don't have that kind of time...
Here is how I see the coming year playing out:
As soon as this end-of-cycle heroin overdose rally stops bidding up the most heavily shorted Energy, Industrial and Retail stocks, the entire global casino will go bidless - having been record lubricated by monetary heroin. There will be no place outside of cash/money markets left to hide. As I write, defensives and momentum stocks are already getting pounded.
When the crash occurs, central banks won't have the dry powder to put Humpty Dumpty together again. Record Ponzi risk is waiting to explode in Municipal bonds, fracking stocks, junk bonds, corporate credit, leveraged loans, and unicorn IPOs. Global banks will once again be tilted towards collapse, having done nothing of substance to de-risk in the past decade.
All of which means that political risk will skyrocket between now and the election. Trump's approval rating will collapse like a cheap tent and he will be impeached by the House and Senate. Not because any of the underlying facts will change, merely because Republican's will discover their sanctimonious outrage, at the bottom of their empty wallets. "Who elected this guy anyway?". Elizabeth Warren's election odds will skyrocket when the middle class realizes they got conned all over again. By the exact same criminals as last time.
All of that will transpire long before anyone enters the Russian-rigged election booth to pull the slot machine handle one year hence.
Private sector job openings (annualized change, thousands), are now at cycle lows.
Despite three rate cuts:
Private sector job openings (annualized change, thousands), are now at cycle lows.
Despite three rate cuts:
REITs just took out the 2019 trend-line:
The VIX is coiling at the 2019 support line:
This year's largest IPO reported widening losses last night.
Lockup expiration is...Tomorrow November 6th:
"Counting on public markets to provide “the greater fool” is no longer as viable an exit strategy for institutional investors"
These companies have been private for years. They’ve raised a bunch of money. They are at scale. And they are still losing money."
These companies have been private for years. They’ve raised a bunch of money. They are at scale. And they are still losing money."
Speaking of unprofitable crap, fracking stocks are "leading", meaning this rally is now running on glue fumes...
Banks are also rallying - now a very symmetrical three wave correction
Transports just now back to April's level:
Transports just now back to April's level:
Institutions are still selling
The Tech bubble is still diverging:
As long as 5g semiconductors don't implode this will all be fine:
Last, but not least...
The Tokyo Nikkei is now identical to last year
