Friday, November 8, 2019

The Jedi Mind Trick. Is Ending.

The narcotic effects of Trump B.S. (Bullshit) expansion combined with Fed B.S. (Balance sheet) expansion, are wearing off...

This is what happens in an Idiocracy - Complacency gets monetized:



"They'd like to have a rollback (of tariffs) but I haven't agreed to anything," Trump told reporters at the White House. "We're getting along very well with China, and they want to make a deal. In fact, they would like to make a deal much more than I do."





What a week. Trump got trolled this week by the Chinese State media, and it took two days for the White House to admit it, while the Dow went vertical. In the meantime, Kudlow and Navarro were going head to head...

"There is no agreement at this time to remove any of the existing tariffs as a condition of the phase-one deal"

"The spectacle of the Chinese propaganda press putting out information like that, they're just negotiating in public, trying to push us in a direction, but the president makes these decisions," Navarro said."

"Dec. 15th "looms" and serves as the impetus of these reports adding  "that's when the next tranche of tariffs will go on and the reason the Chinese are complaining about tariffs is because they're working beautifully."

aka. "We're winning"

Recall, the G20 fake trade truce was November last year. What has changed since then? 

Correlation is higher, and tariffs are higher as well.





Of course this entire glue sniffing rally to "all time highs" was really due to the massive rotation to reflation, that was reminiscent of three years ago when Trump got elected. Furthermore, we learned that this entire fake reflation rally was sponsored by Fed balance sheet expansion since the beginning of September, and then further amplified by this week's Chinese propaganda.

Here we see U.S. banks with the Fed balance sheet:






Here is the longer-term view of banks













The hype and hope bubble got pole axed this week by Uber, but magically stabilized later in the week, to get 10 more IPOs out the door. Here we see that the IPO bubble peaked with Uber's mega IPO: 





The term "safe haven" got put to the test this week and failed. 

Lies upon lies upon lies have left sector rotation spent










Looking at the dominoes left to implode...