Friday, November 8, 2019

The Grapes Of Wrath 2020

1929 to 2019, what has been learned? Less than nothing...


"The enlightened know that today's central bankers are spinning a falsehood of recovery; they steadfastly refuse to be suckered in by the euphoria of a monetary boom...Everyone else is drugged by the virtual simulation of prosperity and its acolyte QE"



"As the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded, the S&P 500 has grown at almost the exact pace"

“This really speaks to the idea that once again we’re on the brink of potentially being in this bubble, where valuations are about the story and the narrative and not about the cash flow and profits. You would think we would have learned this lesson before. But here we go again.”

How can facts and data compete with free money and non-stop Twitter bullshit?

Enjoy!




"Never mind"




Massive global asset bubble. Unprecedented wealth inequality. Comatose populace. Business-friendly president. Extreme trade tensions. Rising nationalistic fascism competing with rising "socialism". Rising geopolitical tensions.

Robber baron billionaires doing everything possible to keep this con job going.




All followed by MASSIVE CRASH.

Warren Buffett, history's "greatest investor" was born in 1930, less than one year after the crash. Which is why he doesn't remember the Great Depression. Most of his life took place AFTER that dark period. Which is also why he is a perma-optimist in the American project. That and the fact that he is 100% removed from economic reality, like all billionaires today. They are willfully oblivious to the fact that the American Dream is now a Powerball lottery.

Take from the poor, give to the rich. 

"I'm 100% for roadkill"




Don't get me wrong, if you come to this country from the Third World and move up from $.50/hour to $5/hour, the dream is alive. But for those born in the U.S., the prospect of moving up the socioeconomic ladder has never been more unlikely. In large part due to the unlimited number of people willing to come to this country and work for $5/hour.

Now that the U.S. middle class has been fully monetized, the only remaining profit growth model is swapping out higher paid workers for lower paid workers. That, and reducing share count to give the illusion of profit "growth". Human history's largest leveraged buyout. But how do LBOs fare in recession?

They don't. 

Here we see the corporate debt bubble (red line), with jobs (blue line). Every time the American myth spontaneously explodes, the human cost grows larger and larger.

What I call the carbon footprint






What happened in Japan has happened in the U.S. - and across the entire developed world. Ossification. Stagnation. Deflation. The over-use of stimulus as a proxy for a functioning economy. All to keep the "system" on life support.

I was wrong ten years ago, when I predicted the myth would implode along with the middle class. Somehow the middle class imploded, but not the myth. Chalk that up to the overwhelming power of brainwashing. Something I never anticipated.

Be that as it may, I am not one to be easily headfaked by false rallies, nor virtual simulated prosperity. The American Dream is now running on MAGA glue fumes, that and printed money - the secret to effortless wealth.

We never "take care of roadkill" - tax cuts for billionaires are the exact opposite of helping the middle class. Generating an ever-larger mountain of roadkill, is not a sustainable business model.

This time, even Warren Buffett will get the memo.

Nothing grows to the sky