EPIC denial. EPIC complacency. EPIC trust in proven morons. Ten fold risks over last year's Q4 -20% crash, offset solely by the total belief in printed money. The Jedi Mind Trick for weak-minded fools. In other words, you have to be brain dead not to see this coming. Which is why it will come as an extreme shock to the useful Idiocracy.
All hedges have been removed. And replaced with imagined realities. Like the one where the FOMC convenes a 3am meeting to buy the futures limit down. In everything at the same time.
"Last year, Q4 GDP was 3%, this year it's at .3%"
"Right, but this year we have printed money, which is far better"
"Oh, got it"
Here we see the comparison between last year and this year. This year, a far bigger Tech bubble accompanied by far less hedging:
The 5g Tech bubble, is the only thing keeping the casino pinned to all time highs:
Yes, this Tech bubble
Here we see social mood via the option call/put index:
On the subject of social mood, here we see the IBD 50, finishing up the right shoulder, two years from the same level:
New all time short open interest in the VIX futures
Record bets on continued year-end melt-up:
Notwithstanding the recent whiplash end of year performance anxiety, overall flows are still solidly negative for all of 2019:
"Heavy outflows from equity funds have been a feature of the market even as stocks have roared back from a late 2018 selloff"
Which is why this fake reflation headfake is the last rotation
From a global perspective, here we see another difference from last year.
In Q4 last year, the Asian markets led by Hong Kong, bottomed in early November and then catapulted higher. Leading the rest of the world.
This year, Hong Kong's market just got rejected at the 200 day, despite all of the trade war hopium and highest inflows in 10 months:
All of which means that global markets are now dependent upon rioters in Hong Kong:
Just remember, "no one saw it coming"
