Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Trade War 2019: Mutual Assured Destruction

I've warned here on these pages for twelve years straight that U.S. trade policy with China is an economic disaster. Of course, protesters at the WTO meeting in Seattle circa 2000 were the true harbingers of collapse. But free trade has been Republican orthodoxy for forty years straight, right up until Trump came along. Which is why his only accomplishment is to close the barn door now that the horses are out. What the wise man does at the beginning, the circus clown does at the end...

Expedient shape shifting is the new "ideology" of the right i.e. whatever it takes to stay in power and keep the corruption flowing. Make no mistake, this EPIC trade war hubris is the iceberg now sinking the GOP Titanic. To think that they are betting the party on a protectionist "liberal" policy, is biblical irony. Had Obama tried the same thing, he would have been crucified by the rabid right. More proof that today's lost "values voters" believe whatever Rupert Murdoch tells them to believe every morning.




"Ever since President Ronald Reagan, there has been an “inexorable movement” within the GOP toward free trade"

But that’s changing under Trump, and it’s scrambling traditional alliances between Republican lawmakers and America’s business community, putting both on uncertain footing"

In some ways, Trump’s approach is more in line with liberals, including potential 2020 rivals Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren"

The trade war is reaching a crescendo as China refuses to back down which is forcing Trump to escalate ahead of the election. He knows this can't drag on much longer, which is why he is going for the kill. For their part, China wants Trump to escalate and self-implode. Both sides see blood in the water, neither side will admit it's their own. It's a case study in tragic hubris.

Bear in mind, trade talks are currently underway:

Yesterday:
China Signals Reluctance to Sign a Comprehensive Trade Deal

Vice Premier Liu He, who will lead negotiations for China, told dignitaries that his offer to the U.S. will not include commitments on reforming Chinese industrial policy or government subsidies, according to to Bloomberg. These are among the Trump administration’s main demands in the trade talks.


Today, the U.S. escalated:



Which elicited this response from China:




Which elicited the U.S. to raise the nuclear option again after Peter Navarro (last week) denied having ever raised it last week:



The whole idea is to implode the Chinese currency which will implode Chinese markets.

What they are assiduously ignoring is the fact U.S. markets are now falling faster than China's:





This is how the trade deficit got "fixed" in 1930, and 2008: