Friday, October 4, 2019

The Promise Of The Joker And The Fool

For the past three years, Donald Trump has been working on his own wealth tax. It's called 100%. No refunds, no exchanges.

Has anyone noticed that the only stocks making new highs in 2019 are pumped and dumped momentum junk and recession stocks?

Or is everyone smoking monetary crack nowadays? That's what I thought. 

Record Global Collapse In Interest Rates Precedes Crash

"Easy money tends to blind people to very real perils"







The grand theft larceny began with Trump's ludicrously irresponsible tax cut, stolen of course from future generations. Because if it's one thing Banana Republicans have always stood for it's plundering future generations for a good time today. Didn't we learn as much from the last Ass-Clown-In-Chief? Apparently not. 

August 1st, 2019 
Treasury Plans Record Liquidity Drawdown To Fund Asinine Deficit

August 2019
Bankruptcy-fueled Job Cuts Soar, Highest Since 2009

August 27th, 2019
Insiders Selling At Fastest Rate Since 2007

September, 4th 2019
Big Short seller circa 2008 warns passive indexing is new subprime

September 13th, 2019
Momentum Stocks Spontaneously Combust

September 15th, 2019 
Overnight Repo Market Explodes Deja Vu of 2008


September 16th, 2019
2019 Sets New Record For Retail Store Closures

September 27th, 2019
Record High Tech Companies Issuing Negative Earnings Guidance

September27th, 2019 
IPO Party Comes To A Screeching Halt

October 1st, 2019
Worst Manufacturing Data Since Recession



"No brain dead zombie saw it coming"




Do Republicans really want a fraudulent criminal running the country? Apparently so. Somehow, betting 100% of capital on a proven bankruptcy artist, off his meds in real-time, is better than facing a mere 2% wealth tax.That's how greedy these people are - so worried about a bit of lint falling out of their wallet, they don't see the thief grabbing it out of their hand. For them "it's a matter of principle", wherein the only principle is concern for oneself. 

Nevertheless, long before scary women in yoga pants take over the country, forcing incontinent geezers to hide in fear, I suggest that even Trump's biggest supporters will wish they had their 2016 vote back along with what de minimis fraction remains of their capital. File that under bible lesson #1: "too late".

What a week in Trump Casino. Highly explosive. 

Based on today's close, one would never know that the Dow ran over 2,000 bi-directional points intra-week - almost an 8% roller coaster ride. The low liquidity condition predicted several weeks ago was on full display this week, as Skynet worked double overtime to keep it together. The net result - both weak bulls and weak bears got massively rinsed this week - stops run in both directions. Nevertheless, the order of the day was "BTFD".

Why? Because an outright collapse in U.S. macro data this week solidified belief in a Fed bailout of Trump Casino:






In other words, over the past few weeks we've witnessed momentum (stock) collapse. Last week, the IPO market literally shut down. And then this past week we experienced macro data collapse, and yet belief in the Fed "Put" below the market is stronger than ever. As we see below, it was monetization of hedges that prevented meltdown this time last year. Sadly, that sort of REAL protection no longer exists. Now, the casino is protected by "imagined realities" - the abiding belief in just-in-time monetary bailouts. You know the kind that arrive ahead of S&P futures limit down.




Leaving aside the fact that it took -20% S&P last year to force a Fed pivot. Even if the Fed is forced to panic cut rates at these historically minimal levels because of imminent recession, does anyone really believe that will save the casino?

No one with a brain that's for certain.

Sadly, women in yoga pants suggesting long overdue course corrections can't arrive in time to keep the Titanic from imploding straight to the bottom of the Dead Sea with Captain Nut Job at the helm.

It's time for political zombies to stop worrying who will be the Captain of the Titanic a year from now and start worrying about who is running amok on the bridge right now.

Because from a financial/economic perspective, it's already too late. 












Remember in early October 2008 when the TARP bailout was too little, too late?

I do.