Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Quantum Quake 2019: Global Warning Ignored

Way back three weeks ago a bearish hedge fund warned that what is coming will be 10x Quant Quake, which was the liquidity event that marked the top in 2007. Two weeks later (last week) was the biggest momentum/value rotation in the past decade. Last night was the biggest inter-bank liquidity shortage in a decade. The liquidity trap has arrived...

August 26th, 2019:



“Unlocked hot money, retail driven, passively managed: the daily liquidity risk is highly underestimated today,” the hedge fund wrote. “With it, the so-called ‘gap risk’, especially overnight gap risk. Which bring us to the real danger in markets these days being the market itself.”


Last week:



Last night:



“Secured funding markets are clearly not functioning well,” said Jon Hill, a rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets. Monday’s jump in overnight repo rates, especially since it’s not happening at the end of a quarter, is “bordering on chaos,”


Here is where it gets interesting. 

Safe havens were pre-imploded last week during the momentum massacre.





The overall casino is overbought and breadth is rolling over:




The momentum factor is bouncing off of the 200 day:






The "reflation" trade is three wave corrective and running out of steam again




Each of the past two FOMC meeting's saw an immediate escalation in the trade war by Trump. Which according to Zerohedge is the re-election "strategy".

Regardless, each "truce" rally is three wave corrective and weaker and weaker:




Compliments of overseas markets, the overnight gaps are growing, as the Cassandra predicted:

“If a large-enough shock event takes place, the market system may find it hard to absorb selling flows, therefore leading to a snowball effect of more selling flows and large downside gap risks.”

One of these is not like the others:





Average True Range
"A (standard) volatility formula based only on the high-low range would fail to capture volatility from (overnight) gap or limit moves. Wilder created Average True Range to capture this “missing” volatility"

Any questions?