Thursday, July 18, 2019

Volatility Explosion 2.0: "Aw Fuck, Not This Again!"

Risks have grown exponentially since the last volatility explosion, which is why denialists assume it can't happen again. Gamblers are at maximum lubrication in anticipation of more free money, as New York Fed president John Williams just went full dovetard, sending the odds of a half point rate cut to 70%. It was at 20% just a few days ago:




Sadly, there is no such thing as free money. U.S. stocks have garnered the bulk of global capital flows due to treasury yield differentials.

That overseas bid is now unwinding.

We haven't seen this since limit down Brexit:



"LONDON (Reuters) - The chance that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal is the highest since October 2017, economists polled by Reuters say, as arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson looks set to take over as prime minister next week."






We haven't seen the Yen carry trade unwind like this since VolPlosion 1.0.

Here we see $USDJPY with consumer staples which are screaming higher





The problem is that there is only so much dish detergent anyone needs. I pretty much have my fill already.






Remember last December when Johnson & Johnson tanked due to the asbestos in talc story? Only it turns out the story was over a year old. 

Now the story is "breaking news" again.

What I want to know is why is asbestos never a concern when the stock is rallying?




Another sugar high is ending




Trump is playing his last card





"Buy the rumour, sell the war"