Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Make The Casino Implode Again

Regardless of who wins the election, Trumptopian delusion is fully priced in...

I just learned today that there is a "MAGA" ETF:

"The Point Bridge GOP "Make America Great Again" ETF tracks an index of US large-cap companies whose employees and political action committees are highly supportive of Republican candidates."

If Trumptopian corruption isn't even helping the people who supported it. How the hell is it going to work for anyone else?

"That's ok, please don't help our industry"

Barring Wall Street's "nightmare" scenario of a Democrat sweep of the House and Senate, the "shock" effect of the election should be nominal. Which means that Trump will take to Twitter before morning arrives to blow smoke up everyone's ass about how he's the reason the world is still turning on its axis. And more importantly, which means the two year referendum on Trump is "priced in", amid record Republican optimism for an end of year rally. Therefore, positioning will determine what happens next.

First, the dumb money:

Nov. 5th, 2018: Investor's Business Daily
"Economic optimism rose 1.2 points to a euphoric 81.2 among Republicans. Pessimism deepened among Democrats, with the index slipping 1.9 points to 36.1"

And then the smart money:

ZH: Oct. 25th, 2018:
Smart Money Collapses To Lehman Lows

In other words, the RepubliCon party were just conned by their own con man. Shocking, I know. 

Here is how it happened:

The tax cut took effect this past January, leading to a blow-off top in risk assets. From that point forward, stock buybacks supported the market while corporate insiders sold with both hands. Also from that point forward, the rest of the world diverged from the U.S., as did U.S. breadth and new highs. In the meantime, corporate earnings peaked, inflation gained momentum, and the Fed further tightened liquidity. When October rolled around, global markets fell off a cliff confirming that the bull market was over. However, the mid-term elections loomed which were a catalyst for a massive short-covering rally. Trumptopian bulls went ALL IN believing that an end of year rally is a lock. 

Now, the casino is overbought, shorts have covered, and hedges have been removed. 

Which means that bulls are stranded in no man's land with no buyers left to con.

Those who voted for Trumptopia with their wallets are going to find out the true cost of being on the wrong side of the trade.

And trusting the incontinent ramblings of old jackasses, attempting to restore greatness by soiling themselves continuously...