This global synchronized selloff is identical to the one in 2016, with one difference: Gamblers are still betting the farm on fake reflation...
Amid the longest oil rout in U.S. history, something tells me that bet is not going to pay off:
Amid the longest oil rout in U.S. history, something tells me that bet is not going to pay off:
Other than delusional positioning, the set-up is identical:
Chinese Yuan implosion. Check.
Tech wreck. Check.
Emerging Market stocks/credit imploding. Check.
Global synchronized slowdown. Check.
Fed hiking rates. Check.
First, the story of the day, week, month is the annihilation in the crude oil market. Pundits are wondering, why is crude crashing: Too much supply? Too little demand? Strengthening dollar? Excessive speculation? Donny's Twitter commandment to lower oil prices?
The answer is, all of the above.
In a nutshell, deja vu of 2015, OPEC has decided to fight U.S. producers for market share, into a weakening global economy.
And, as we see, speculators are still far too bullish. Which means, the margin calls are rolling in:
Been there, done that:
Emerging Market credit almost at the 2016 nadir:
Tech wreck deja vu:
Small cap:
Apple, joining the supply chain lower. Sayonara $1 trillion market cap:
Amazon deja vu:
Banks
Overall breadth:
The key difference. Still betting on fake reflation.
