Sunday, September 9, 2018

Ponzi World Now Hangs On iPhoney 11

The last two mega cap Tech stocks holding up the entire casino just rolled over this past week. In Y2K the leading economic indicators were 100% correlated to the Nasdaq. This time, they're rolling over ahead of the casino. iPhone 11 is the new leading economic indicator...

iPhone 11 will be announced on Wednesday September 12th:




Last Tuesday on the first day after Labor Day I said that Apple and Amazon were the last two mega cap tech stocks still making new highs. That was the top for both stocks - they both fell the remainder of the week. Apple was attempting to rally back late on Friday when the news hit that multiple Apple products are now on the Trump tariff China hit list. The stock closed down -1%, at the week's low. Meaning it dropped 2% in the final minutes. 

Last year on September 12th, Apple announced the iPhone 10. The stock tanked. Leading up to that announcement, the stock had been rallying for two months. This time the stock has been rallying for four months straight, since human history's largest stock buyback was announced: 




Apple's suppliers have been warning that unit sales growth is falling because the iPhone 10 is too expensive.

We now know that the iPhone 11 will be (far) more expensive:

CNBC, Sept. 6th, 2018:
"Apple, which is expected to unveil the new iPhones on Sept. 12, has gradually increased the average selling price of its phones as volumes plateau."

Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on the company Thursday, arguing that Apple's stock typically performs well ahead of big events and that the potential for higher iPhone average selling prices could usher in even more upside."

On Friday we learned that prices will be much higher and profit margins will be much lower than Wall Street expects.



Amazon tagged the $1 trillion mark on Tuesday and closed Friday right at the five month trend-line:








I think we all see where I'm going with this...

Dumbphone 11 is now a leading economic indicator