Monday, July 23, 2018

Harry Houdini For President

There is no lie too big, they won't believe it. No clown too asinine, they won't follow. For every insider seller stampeding out the door, there has to be a bagholder on the other side of the trade who believes that an economic revival is underway...

Rule #1: Never go FULL Donny:

"In recent months we have seen Trump increasingly operate on a go it alone strategy, relying more in his personal instincts and less on input from advisors. We expect these tendencies to continue and shape the direction of policy decisions in the near-term, leading to potentially binary outcomes"

Which gets us to the topic of this blog post: Binary outcomes. 

In a Ponzi scheme, liquidity is like any other magic trick - now you see it, now you don't:

Normally Goldman doesn't warn their clients, they just bet against them instead, for fun and profit. But apparently they already sold, so now there's one more step between them and payoff...

You know the drill. Same as last time:

In summary, the smart money has left the casino:

"Insiders dumped $8.4 billion of their shares in May and $9.2 billion in June, according to an analysis of regulatory filings by TrimTabs Investment Research. That's the biggest two-month period of insider selling in a year."

"They're buying back from the front door, and shoveling shares out the back door"

"Speaking at a "Made In America" event on July 23, President Trump said his administration is "reclaiming our proud manufacturing heritage."

Any questions?

I just read a warning by Goldman Sachs on Zerohedge saying that there's no liquidity in the casino. It's a "total mystery". Let's see if we can figure it out...

"Bid/ask depth had deteriorated prior to 5-Feb’s VIX spike"

"Currently, E-mini SPX futures’ bid/ask depth is well below its range from 2H2016 and 2017, even though volatility has receded"

Where did the money go?

Here's some more money

Speculative money

"Weakened availability of liquidity when conditions are favorable could point toward especially low liquidity when it’s needed most – i.e. in the next severe market sell-off."

"Safe haven"

"Trade wars are fantastic"

"Get ready for the S&P 500 to jump to new highs, says our chart of the day from Cam Hui over at Humble Student of the Markets. He has shared the graphic below that shows the index breaking out of a cup-with-handle pattern, a chart formation that many technical analysts love to see."

For every insider seller, there has to be someone who has been convinced that an economic revival is underway...