Sunday, July 15, 2018

Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Bagholder

Ron Paul just implied that Trump is the biggest con man in human history. He's so polite. Fittingly, it appears that (the absence of) stock buybacks could well be the reason the casino implodes...

"In U.S. financial slang, a bagholder is a shareholder left holding shares of worthless stocks"

Perma-bulls and perma-bears are diametrically opposed: Bulls see new highs, bears see epic collapse. Unfortunately, both sides can't be right. It all comes down to, who do you trust?

A market that has gone nowhere for four months now has bulls expecting new all time highs by breaking above the March retracement level. Like this one, the March rally was propelled by the prospect of tax-cut fueled earnings, but it was derailed by the imploding yield curve and threats of a trade war. Both of those risks are far worse this time around, so once again optimism is clearly warranted. Unfortunately, bulls can't afford to be wrong, because this is either the longest correction in 30+ years...or it's not a "correction" at all...

"Should the two primary market gauges stay in correction through the close of trading on Monday, that will mean they are in their longest such stretch since 1984."

Based on the mainstream media, one would have no clue where we are in this cycle, much less this bullishit market. Because when only one indicator is used to determine the health of the economy and indeed of society, then everything else can implode in real-time...

"Wall Street investors find themselves facing off with a bull of their own, one that is in its ninth year and, despite being beset by a cavalcade of concerns, appears on the verge of resuming the second-longest run since WWII"

He lists all of the asinine risks, and then proceeds to dismiss all of them out of hand, without the slightest explanation.

By contrast, a well known perma-bear took a lot at the exact same set-up and came to this conclusion: 

"Look to the stock market and you’d assume Wall Street was doing just fine. The S&P 500 has come back to March highs, the Dow is back to positive for 2018, and the Nasdaq is at fresh records."

"It’s all built on shaky foundations, said longtime market bear and former Republican Congressman Ron Paul."

With Amazon (red):

Peak earnings announcements are this week and next week, so we don't have long to wait:

"No one told me"