Speculators, consumers, economists, politicians, and business leaders are all extremely over-confident right now. Excited at the prospect of robbing future generations so they can pretend to be wealthy and successful now. After all, there was no other way:
Rule #1: Never Go FULL Donny:
The divergence between momentum stocks and value stocks is record wide. The smart money is record betting against Forrest Trump:
Note below that in the last cycle, business confidence followed the rate of deflation. In this cycle, compliments of Central Planning for billunaires combined with fiscal profligacy at level '11', business confidence has diverged from the underlying rate of deflation. Gamblers who believe that economists and business leaders can predict the future, will be surprised to learn that they can't even predict the now. Consider that Treasury bonds are record shorted right now and the Fed is planning to raise rates next week, for how fast this delusion will unwind when Y2K 2.0 implodes. As long as Go Daddy holds its bid, this will all be fine...
Monday and Tuesday of this week were the lowest volume days of 2018. Today's volume is tracking in similar moribund fashion. Skynet knows that the only buyers are above the casino, while epic margined-out sellers lurk below. What is the purpose of this algo-driven bubble expansion?
The last time Wall Street dumped this much junk into the casino - four years ago, marked the peak for large cap breadth (lower pane). This time, they are dumping into a much weaker market, led by small cap junk stocks and a handful of massively overvalued large cap Techs.
"The chart of the financials has reached a very precarious level, according to TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon."
In March 2017, Donny made over-investment in Energy great again, because the "EPA's war against cheap energy" only allowed oil to trade down to $26/bbl in 2016. With the help from industry mega dunces, it should get much closer to zero this time:
Last March, 2017:
"By executive order, Trump will end the Environmental Protection Agency's war against cheap energy"
Speaking of inconvenient shock and awe, one thing we already know for certain, is that just as Skynet has artificially inflated the bubble on low volume, the algos will amplify the selling on high volume: