Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Slowly At First, Then Everything At Once

Once the machines lose control, it's all over. Another overnight gap down was bought today with both hands - all global risk assiduously ignored. Gamblers are sailing nonchalantly into a shit storm ahead of the U.S. long weekend...

This sums up the U.S. economy:

100% Science Fiction

"They were watching Netflix 24x7 and the next thing you know, the whole shit show fell apart. No one saw it coming"

Social Mood is imploding

Emerging Markets I just covered in the last post, so we'll  cover the other markets that are not taking Monday off. Today, European economic PMIs came in at an 18 month low. How better to tie out a head and shoulders top, over a year in the making:

"Business activity in the eurozone slowed for the fourth straight month in May and more sharply than expected, a survey of manufacturers and service providers showed, a sign that economic growth has yet to rebound from a surprisingly weak showing in the first quarter."

"the tariffs could be as high as 25%"

Over in oil land, crude inventories just rose massively ahead of peak driving season:

"Crude inventories rose 5.8 million barrels in the week to May 18, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.6 million barrels."

Just in time, frackers are enjoying a mid-week reversal of fortune:

On to retail earnings, one wouldn't know by following Jim Cramer, but yet again, it's a tale of two cities. High end retail is doing just fine, middle class/low-end retail is imploding...

U.S. new home sales also fell in April (not shown)

Staffing. Or not. All of this can be explained away by "bad weather". Everywhere, at the same time. 

The unexpectedly dovish Fed just ended the massively crowded short Treasury trade. And hence the bank rally.