Thursday, May 24, 2018

An Aspirational Idiocracy

Conditions are identical to 2015, with an end-of-cycle twist. For starters, the "global synchronized recovery" Jedi Mind Trick is still in play. May the farce be with you...

While proven corrupt idiots were babbling non-stop, the world's asset bubbles crashed/rolled over one by one:

Short volatility
Emerging Markets
China Tech
Social Media
Artificial Intelligence
Global Real Estate

The three largest bubbles are the last to fall and they are 100% correlated:
Long oil/Ponzi reflation
Short Treasury bonds
Long Mega cap Tech

Way back in 2015, the Fed was in tightening mode, the dollar was screaming higher, gamblers were chasing risk, then Emerging Markets hit a brick wall...


When the Yuan devaluation crashed global risk markets in August 2015, the Yellen Fed pulled back from a September rate increase due to "global market conditions". The deflation trade was put back on in size. By early 2016, global Central Banks had collaborated to juice the global casino one more time, leading to the blow-off top this past January. 

What is different now? For one, it's three years later and the cycle is older meaning capacity utilization is higher, inflation is running hotter. The global leverage bubble - across stocks, Bitcoins, real estate, everything, is far larger now. The final margin call will be painful to say the least. Global interest rates are higher, and the Fed is tightening on the short end and the long end at the same time. The asset allocation into stocks from bonds has been far more extreme, and the Fed is oblivious to EM dislocations:

"The Federal Reserve’s gradual push towards higher interest rates shouldn’t be blamed for any roiling of emerging market economies, which are well placed to navigate the tightening of U.S. monetary policy"

“Emerging market fundamentals are in a much better shape

"since the 2013 taper tantrum, the group’s dollar debt has climbed in excess of $1 trillion -- more than the combined size of the Mexican and Thai economies"

Final bubbles 1 and 2

Final bubble #3