Monday, May 7, 2018

Regime Change. Indeed

The reign of corrupt lying geezers is ending extraordinarily badly. But like everything else, they appear to have forgotten. 

Because there's a fine line between denial and dementia. And we crossed that line a long time ago...

The Iran premium is coming out of oil. The odds on bet is that Trump will announce the U.S. is withdrawing from the deal, which would reimpose economic sanctions while also freeing Iran to resume making nuclear fuel.

Either way, it's priced in to oil. And oil was the last piece of the puzzle to resist the 2014 deflationary deja vu, despite the rising dollar. 

Based on where the Canadian dollar is trading due to the $USD rally, oil should be trading ~30% lower, assuming the wheels don't come off the bus. 

The reason why Trump thinks regime change is necessary in Iran, is because he is historically illiterate to the fact that regime change in Iran is how this entire fiasco started. Going back to the 1950s it was Britain and the U.S. who installed the Shah of Iran in power, to protect their oil interests. Twenty-five years of abject corruption later he was overthrown, so the U.S. backed Saddam Hussein in the eight year Iran Iraq war. 

Knowing that, it would be indeed ironic, if rescinding the Iran deal was the last straw in the Roman Circus tent pole.

Speaking of lying geezers, I read some of the glib Ponzi advice Buffett and Gates dispensed at their Woodstock for bailout queens.

Reading any of their folksy bullshit one would have to ignore all of the past ten years - the mass bankruptcies, mass layoffs, mass shootings, fentanyl overdoses, doubling in debt, trillion dollar deficits, record low interest rates. Printing money to levitate stocks. 

But most importantly one would have to ignore the bailout, because without that their wealth would be a puny fraction of what it is today.

But it appears - just like everyone else - they've conveniently forgotten.

Atlas Shrugged. Indeed.