Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Fiddling While Rome Burns

The definition of insanity is trusting the exact same psychopaths over and over again, each time expecting a different result...

Speaking of rapacious criminality, I've said all along that unlike 2008 when the zombies were too stunned to act - this time around, there will be massive lawsuits against the eminently corrupt financial services industry. And it turns out that despite the casino itself near all time highs - there already are surging lawsuits- as one asset domino after another falls. We ain't seen nothin' yet. The days when (un)hedge fund managers can pursue imagined realities at their client's expense, are over...

MW: Financial Lawsuits Are Surging

And the defense that "No one saw it coming", need not apply. 

"The Leuthold chief investment officer notes that the comeback trail for stocks since their Feb. 8 low has been “the most meandering of all recovery paths since 1950.”

Meanwhile back in the casino:
Cancelling the Iran nuclear deal has reassured bulltards that global fake reflation is alive and well. What else?

A society of perma-smiling mannekins:

CNBS: Iran Deal Fallout Is Unique Opportunity To Buy More Stocks. Dow Up 150.

It's Wednesday, so by law and VIX expiration, the casino must be up today. Here is a count that both Daneric and I can agree upon. Four months of non-stop denialistic bullshit, while the global reflationary mirage turned back into a pumpkin:

As I've said many times, this clown show only makes sense in the context of a dementia-ridden old age home, terrified of change, yet cannibalizing the status quo at an unprecedented rate. The inevitable consequence of the corporate perpetual growth model hitting the brick wall of finite reality: Debt-sponsored stock buybacks to give the illusion of profit growth.   

Japan, on a global scale.

The initial consequences of Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, was a risk on rally led by oil, what else?

Which brings us to the question of the day - if Oil is saying RISK ON and the dollar is saying RISK OFF, which one is right?

"Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are rallying in tandem—a dynamic that has only occurred 11 times since 1983, and it’s drawing the attention of market participants attempting to assess its significance."

Comparing two disagreeing asset classes is a futile exercise because Wall Street can spin their chicanery ten ways to Sunday. And they will do anything to keep zombies in risk. 

Cue: Perma bulltard Jeffrey Saut who could make Armageddon seem like a day at the beach:

"In a research note on Wednesday, Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, said while the simultaneous rally is rare, it isn’t unprecedented...Saut said Raymond James remained upbeat on the outlook for commodities overall, particularly energy-related stocks, which he argued have been underinvested and underloved."

Getting past denialistic disinformers, we need to ask when has oil diverged so much from Emerging Markets?

And for further confirmation, when has oil diverged from the Canadian dollar?

And, when last was the underperformance of Energy stocks relative to oil a unique opportunity to get obliterated?

At the end of the cycle, of course:

ZH: This Is Stagflation!!!

No it's not. It's amnesia. Borne of a society that can't remember what they had for lunch yesterday. And therefore keep making the same mistakes over and over again.

In an economy run by and for serial con men there can be is no aggregate wage growth, and hence no secular stagflation. 

This is what happens when fools apply the wrong fix to the wrong problem

Consumer delinquencies (red) with short-term rate (blue):