Friday, April 6, 2018


The definition of insanity is buying global trade wars, each time expecting a different result...

The S&P 500 closed right on the 200 day Maginot Line.

Recall, we learned earlier in the week that G10 macro data is back at 2016 lows, as confirmed by the technicals:

Also, mentioned in that same link - $100 billion in deleveraging awaits 70 points below Friday close, which happens to be the low from February.

"at 2535...the current “43% long” gaps through “neutral” and all the way to outright “MAX SHORT”—which then would require a notional deleveraging of SPX closer to ~ $100B."

Another 90% down day. All S&P sectors down today.

Here is where it gets interesting. Employment report Fridays are generally trend up days. There were only two exceptions to that rule in the past 12 months - 
Today, and February 2nd. 

Today's point loss was -58 versus -59 in February. Both were 90% down days. The Monday following Feb. 2nd, was the biggest down day since the smash crash in August 2015:

Yet another failed rally has left the casino overbought: 

Transports closed right on the retest line. A gap below this line is Dow Theory failure:

Oil closed right on the uptrend line:

The last global bubble just popped, as record long oil speculators will now get stopped out by the failure to make a new high...

Meaning that all global risk assets are now 100% correlated.

To the downside:

The World Leaders Index closed below the 200 day:

The last part of Tech that was still holding up. Kind of...

"In the broadening top formation five minor reversals are followed by a substantial decline"

Back test the trend line. Check.

Overnight risk. Check. 

No place to hide. Check. 

Mind the gap 'n crap