Monday, March 5, 2018

The Art Of The Con

The joint ignorance pact has its downsides. With each flagging rally, the lies must be repeated with greater and greater conviction. This society is investing for the future by cannibalizing the status quo...

Another overseas selloff gets bought in the U.S., shocker. So far, this pattern of selloff Tuesday-Thursday and reversal Friday-Monday is deja vu of last week. My discussion today will be on the importance of trendlines as predictors of the future. I think we all see where I'm going with this...

I finished writing my online book called "The Sustainable Economy: Why Globalization Failed And What To Do Now". I am fairly confident that I will be first off the press when the final collapse arrives unannounced, since the herd has jointly agreed not to see it coming ahead of time. 

My hypothetical commencement speech for the youth at this juncture would say that IF, you/we are doing the things necessary to build a better future, then the future CAN be better than today. Optimism is warranted. However, if you/we are engaging in short-term, risky, and self-destructive behaviours then it stands to reason optimism is not warranted. Very profound. An obvious statement that somehow eludes today's Idiocracy. 

At this moment this aged Idiocracy is engaging in the most self-destructive and irresponsible economic behaviours never before conceived much less tried in human history - selling off the economy to make the quarter, stealing Social Security deductions to pay for tax cuts, conflating debt with GDP... Stock buybacks are now the sole source of liquidity for the casino: the cannabilization of the share count to give the illusion of growing wealth. Today's fools have put the cart before the horse - because they've invested in the future, they've decided the future MUST be better. They conveniently forgot the hard part about taking action to ensure the future WILL BE better.

In other words, no one has to predict the future, we only need to look at what is going on today to know what things look like in the future. Over on UFO central, they are finally catching on to the importance of trendlines. Trendlines matter because they indicate the direction of momentum. Fundamental analysts eschew technical (chart) analysis because they say that the past can't predict the future. But as I've said, actions in the past are the ONLY way to approximate the future. Conversely, fundamentalists prefer to guess where corporate earnings will be a year from now. If the economic expansion continues, they will be right, however if it's the end of the cycle, they will be off by a minus sign. Again. And again. And again.

Which is how crashes happen.

Getting back to trendlines, we have a few to look at now:

We have the strongest index - Nasdaq deja vu of 2000, now making its third lower weekly high:

There's the 1987-looking Dow, not quite as strong...

There's the rest of the world, perilously invoking 2014:

There's the world leaders stock index camped out on the two year trend-line:

Oil invoking exactly one month ago before the wheels came off the stock market bus...

China Tech invoking 2015

And of course there's the IQ Test.

But most importantly as long as *everyone* is agreeing that no one knows what's going to happen. And therefore everyone is assiduously ignoring global risk and buying it with both hands.

Then we know exactly what's going to happen.