Saturday, March 3, 2018

It's Been An Amazing Ride To Nowhere

Feb. 1, 2018:
Ameritrade CEO: There Is An Enormous Amount Of Retail Money Coming Into The Market

"It's been an amazing ride"

Any questions?

Way back in Y2K, the Nasdaq capped off an amazing 14 month run with a parabolic blow-off top into early 2000. Then it vertical imploded, but rallied back for one more lower high in March 2000 before final imploding. Ah yes, good times...

Deja Vu 2018:
Of course, the gamblers driving the last leg of this rally were in kindergarten during Y2K, which is why they have not the slightest clue how this ends. And Zerohedge is taking the year off to look for missing UFOs, so they're of no help. 

In other words, all of BTFD went into Internet stocks:

Rewind one month to the top in the S&P 500:

"The rise in investments is fueled by the cryptocurrency and cannabis sectors"

In January, the e-trader saw an average of 975,000 trades per day. TD Ameritrade recently beat fourth-quarter earnings and had 726,000 average daily trades during the same period, a 49 percent increase year over year"

I'm not an expert in math, but if 726,000 is a 50% increase through December, then 975,000 is a 100% increase through January according to my calculator. 

And so here we are in March, post-correction. Witnessing the resurrection of Go Daddy to all time highs. 

In other words, were it not for the relentless bid for junk everything, by a generation that has never seen a stock market decline, this shit show would have ended a long time ago. 

First off, Crypto and cannabis are so yesterday, I'm not even going to show Bitcoin again, so here are pot stocks.

This is where it gets interesting:

Back to Feb. 1:
"Hockey admitted it is beginning to feel a bit "frothy...But millennials seem to be the least concerned...First-time clients under age 35 jumped 72 percent during the fourth quarter compared with the same time last year, most notably in the tech sector.

I think we all see where I'm going with this: I'm giving the geriatrics the night off - while giving GenX the lifetime off from anything of consequence beyond high fiving in the sports bar. I'm focusing on generation YOLO whom I know and love dearly, since mine own are part of this herd. 

Beyond spent crypto and pot stocks, what else is keeping GoDaddy company on the new weekly highs list? Here we see that the two FANG stocks that actually make real money are down since the Feb. 1 high, whereas the two junkiest stocks are up. Netflix being the junkiest of the four:

"The rise in volatility has also made people more aware of the possibility for large-scale gains, attracting once-skeptical investors who may have sat out of the nine-year bull market"

Back in 2000 Warren Buffett decried the lack of value in the market. He said he doesn't invest in tech because he doesn't trust tech fads. This past week, Warren Buffett decried the lack of value in the market. He said he's been buying Apple hand over fist though, because ten years from inception he finally gets the dumbphone now that sales are at a two year low.

He also said that bonds are much riskier than stocks

In other words, the adults have left the building

As long as Go Daddy doesn't roll over, this will all be fine...

"It's been an amazing ride"